Football · San Marino Campionato · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: SS Cosmos vs FC Fiorentino

Team pages: SS Cosmos · FC Fiorentino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

SS Cosmos1.36

FC Fiorentino1.01

1X2

44% 29% 27%

SS Cosmos Draw FC Fiorentino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Cosmos 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLWWWW

FC Fiorentino 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDLWD

Head-to-head

SS Cosmos 3–1–2 FC Fiorentino (6 last)

SS Cosmos0-1FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino0-1SS Cosmos
FC Fiorentino0-3SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos1-2FC Fiorentino
SS Cosmos4-2FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino3-3SS Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Cosmos 1569 · FC Fiorentino 1464

	SS Cosmos	Draw	FC Fiorentino
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Cosmos (rating 1569 vs 1464).
H2H favours SS Cosmos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Cosmos	FC Fiorentino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.4	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +12’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Cosmos 3–1–2 FC Fiorentino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Fiorentino
08/11/25 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	0-1 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
18/04/25 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	0-3 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
22/12/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Fiorentino
04/02/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	4-2 HT 3-2	FC Fiorentino
03/10/23 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	3-3 HT 1-2	SS Cosmos

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	6	6	0	0	17	3	18
2	SS Virtus	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
5	SS Cosmos	6	4	1	1	14	4	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	7	3	10
7	FC Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	11	6	8
8	AC Libertas	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	SP Domagnano	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
10	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
11	SS San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
12	SS Murata	6	1	1	4	6	15	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	10	23	4
14	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
15	SC Faetano	6	0	3	3	1	15	3
16	San Marino Academy U22	6	0	2	4	1	14	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Cosmos	FC Fiorentino
San Marino Academy U22	4-0 W	2-0 W
SS Murata	2-0 W	4-1 W
Pennarossa	6-1 W	1-3 L
SC Faetano	2-0 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Cosmos

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
11/10	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
13/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	3-0	6-1	1	5	W
04/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	3	11	L
29/08	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
03/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
26/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

FC Fiorentino

WLLWWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
10/10	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	4-0	6-0	6	3	W
19/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-3	3	9	L
11/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
04/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
28/08	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
02/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-1	4-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Cosmos vs FC Fiorentino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Cosmos win (44%). Probabilities: SS Cosmos 44%, draw 29%, FC Fiorentino 27%.

How many goals are expected in SS Cosmos vs FC Fiorentino?

The model expects 2.37 goals (SS Cosmos 1.36 · FC Fiorentino 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Cosmos vs FC Fiorentino?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.