Football · San Marino Campionato · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: SS Folgore/Falciano vs Tre Penne

Team pages: SS Folgore/Falciano · Tre Penne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

SS Folgore/Falciano1.2

Tre Penne1.4

1X2

31% 27% 41%

SS Folgore/Falciano Draw Tre Penne

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Folgore/Falciano 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

Tre Penne 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

SS Folgore/Falciano 1–3–2 Tre Penne (6 last)

Tre Penne1-1SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano1-3Tre Penne
SS Folgore/Falciano1-1Tre Penne
Tre Penne1-2SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano0-1Tre Penne
Tre Penne1-1SS Folgore/Falciano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Folgore/Falciano 1611 · Tre Penne 1623

	SS Folgore/Falciano	Draw	Tre Penne
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tre Penne: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Folgore/Falciano	Tre Penne
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.1	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +13’	2.80	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Folgore/Falciano 1–3–2 Tre Penne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	1-1 HT 1-0	SS Folgore/Falciano
29/11/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	1-3 HT 0-1	Tre Penne
16/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	1-1 HT 1-0	Tre Penne
11/12/24 San Marino Cup	Tre Penne	1-2 HT 0-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
27/11/24 San Marino Cup	SS Folgore/Falciano	0-1 HT 0-1	Tre Penne
23/11/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	1-1 HT 0-0	SS Folgore/Falciano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	6	6	0	0	17	3	18
2	SS Virtus	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
5	SS Cosmos	6	4	1	1	14	4	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	7	3	10
7	FC Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	11	6	8
8	AC Libertas	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	SP Domagnano	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
10	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
11	SS San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
12	SS Murata	6	1	1	4	6	15	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	10	23	4
14	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
15	SC Faetano	6	0	3	3	1	15	3
16	San Marino Academy U22	6	0	2	4	1	14	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Folgore/Falciano	Tre Penne
Juvenes/Dogana	2-1 W	2-0 W
SP Cailungo	1-0 W	2-0 W
SP Domagnano	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Penne (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Folgore/Falciano

WWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/10	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	4-1	5-1	12	3	W
19/09	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
05/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
28/08	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
05/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-2	7-3	1	1	W
19/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	3	2	W

Tre Penne

DDLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
11/10	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
20/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	11	W
29/08	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
16/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
09/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Folgore/Falciano vs Tre Penne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tre Penne win (41%). Probabilities: SS Folgore/Falciano 31%, draw 27%, Tre Penne 41%.

How many goals are expected in SS Folgore/Falciano vs Tre Penne?

The model expects 2.6 goals (SS Folgore/Falciano 1.2 · Tre Penne 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Folgore/Falciano vs Tre Penne?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.