Football · San Marino Campionato · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: La Fiorita vs AC Libertas

Team pages: La Fiorita · AC Libertas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

La Fiorita1.9

AC Libertas0.96

1X2

58% 24% 18%

La Fiorita Draw AC Libertas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

La Fiorita 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDDWWD

AC Libertas 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWLDWL

Head-to-head

La Fiorita 4–2–0 AC Libertas (6 last)

La Fiorita2-2AC Libertas
AC Libertas1-3La Fiorita
La Fiorita6-0AC Libertas
AC Libertas1-1La Fiorita
AC Libertas0-3La Fiorita
La Fiorita3-1AC Libertas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · La Fiorita 1519 · AC Libertas 1441

	La Fiorita	Draw	AC Libertas
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours La Fiorita (rating 1519 vs 1441).
H2H favours La Fiorita: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	La Fiorita	AC Libertas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.56 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +3’	1.53	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +24’	1.56	3.72	4.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · La Fiorita 4–2–0 AC Libertas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 San Marino Campionato	La Fiorita	2-2 HT 1-1	AC Libertas
25/10/25 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	1-3 HT 0-2	La Fiorita
22/02/25 San Marino Campionato	La Fiorita	6-0 HT 1-0	AC Libertas
26/10/24 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	1-1 HT 0-1	La Fiorita
20/01/24 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	0-3 HT 0-1	La Fiorita
17/09/23 San Marino Campionato	La Fiorita	3-1 HT 1-0	AC Libertas

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	6	6	0	0	17	3	18
2	SS Virtus	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
5	SS Cosmos	6	4	1	1	14	4	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	7	3	10
7	FC Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	11	6	8
8	AC Libertas	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	SP Domagnano	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
10	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
11	SS San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
12	SS Murata	6	1	1	4	6	15	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	10	23	4
14	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
15	SC Faetano	6	0	3	3	1	15	3
16	San Marino Academy U22	6	0	2	4	1	14	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	La Fiorita	AC Libertas
SC Faetano	0-0 D	1-1 D
SS Virtus	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tre Penne	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: La Fiorita (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

La Fiorita

LDWLDDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/10	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
19/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-1	2-1	2	0	W
11/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
06/09	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
05/05	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-3	4	5	L

AC Libertas

LLLDDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
09/10	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-1	2-1	9	7	W
18/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
12/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
05/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
29/08	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
29/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
26/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-4	0-9	4	2	L
19/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
12/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in La Fiorita vs AC Libertas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a La Fiorita win (58%). Probabilities: La Fiorita 58%, draw 24%, AC Libertas 18%.

How many goals are expected in La Fiorita vs AC Libertas?

The model expects 2.86 goals (La Fiorita 1.9 · AC Libertas 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in La Fiorita vs AC Libertas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.