Football · San Marino Campionato · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: SP Domagnano vs SS Virtus

Team pages: SP Domagnano · SS Virtus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

SP Domagnano1

SS Virtus2.15

1X2

16% 21% 63%

SP Domagnano Draw SS Virtus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Domagnano 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLLLD

SS Virtus 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

SP Domagnano 2–4 SS Virtus (6 last)

SP Domagnano2-1SS Virtus
SS Virtus2-1SP Domagnano
SS Virtus3-2SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano1-0SS Virtus
SS Virtus3-0SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano1-2SS Virtus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Domagnano 1513 · SS Virtus 1624

	SP Domagnano	Draw	SS Virtus
Our model	16%	22%	63%
Market	16%	20%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Virtus (rating 1513 vs 1624).
H2H favours SS Virtus: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Domagnano	SS Virtus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.33

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.93

2 (-1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.86 ★
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33
2	1.33 → 1.40▲	Pinn 1.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +2’	6.50	4.50	1.33
04:32 +6’	5.50▼	4.33▼	1.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +84’	5.86	4.22	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Domagnano 2–0–4 SS Virtus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	2-1 HT 2-0	SS Virtus
09/05/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	2-1 HT 1-0	SP Domagnano
22/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	3-2 HT 2-0	SP Domagnano
29/11/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-0 HT 0-0	SS Virtus
21/01/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	3-0 HT 2-0	SP Domagnano
14/09/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-2 HT 0-1	SS Virtus

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	6	6	0	0	17	3	18
2	SS Virtus	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
5	SS Cosmos	6	4	1	1	14	4	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	7	3	10
7	FC Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	11	6	8
8	AC Libertas	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	SP Domagnano	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
10	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
11	SS San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
12	SS Murata	6	1	1	4	6	15	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	10	23	4
14	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
15	SC Faetano	6	0	3	3	1	15	3
16	San Marino Academy U22	6	0	2	4	1	14	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Domagnano	SS Virtus
La Fiorita	1-2 L	0-0 D
Tre Fiori	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SS Virtus (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Domagnano

WLWLWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-2	9	4	D
11/10	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	0	7	L
19/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-2	2	0	L
11/09	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-3	6	2	L
04/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	3-0	4-0	0	0	W
28/08	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
16/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
12/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	0	8	W
09/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	5	4	W

SS Virtus

WWLWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
11/10	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	4-0	5-0	5	0	W
18/09	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
12/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
04/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
30/08	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	8	8	L
09/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
06/05	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Domagnano vs SS Virtus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Virtus win (63%). Probabilities: SP Domagnano 16%, draw 21%, SS Virtus 63%.

How many goals are expected in SP Domagnano vs SS Virtus?

The model expects 3.15 goals (SP Domagnano 1 · SS Virtus 2.15), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Domagnano vs SS Virtus?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.