Football · San Marino Campionato · 23/10, 21:15

Prediction: Tre Penne vs Tre Fiori

Team pages: Tre Penne · Tre Fiori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Tre Penne1.37

Tre Fiori1.14

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Tre Penne Draw Tre Fiori

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tre Penne 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWWWWW

Tre Fiori 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Tre Penne 3–2–1 Tre Fiori (6 last)

Tre Fiori0-2Tre Penne
Tre Penne0-0Tre Fiori
Tre Penne1-0Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori0-1Tre Penne
Tre Penne1-3Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori1-1Tre Penne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tre Penne 1614 · Tre Fiori 1537

	Tre Penne	Draw	Tre Fiori
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Penne (rating 1614 vs 1537).
H2H favours Tre Penne: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tre Penne	Tre Fiori
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.5	2.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +7’	2.15	3.30	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tre Penne 3–2–1 Tre Fiori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	0-2 HT 0-1	Tre Penne
24/10/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	0-0 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
02/04/25 San Marino Cup	Tre Penne	1-0 HT 1-0	Tre Fiori
05/03/25 San Marino Cup	Tre Fiori	0-1 HT 0-0	Tre Penne
23/02/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	1-3 HT 1-2	Tre Fiori
25/10/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	1-1 HT 0-0	Tre Penne

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
2	Tre Penne	5	5	0	0	11	2	15
3	SS Virtus	5	4	1	0	11	2	13
4	Tre Fiori	5	4	0	1	15	5	12
5	SS Cosmos	5	3	1	1	10	4	10
6	La Fiorita	5	2	3	0	7	3	9
7	AC Libertas	5	2	2	1	6	6	8
8	FC Fiorentino	5	2	1	2	10	5	7
9	SP Domagnano	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
10	SP Cailungo	5	1	0	4	5	7	3
11	SS Murata	5	1	0	4	4	13	3
12	SS San Giovanni	5	1	0	4	4	11	3
13	Juvenes/Dogana	5	1	0	4	6	7	3
14	Pennarossa	5	1	0	4	8	21	3
15	San Marino Academy U22	5	0	2	3	1	10	2
16	SC Faetano	5	0	2	3	1	15	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tre Penne	Tre Fiori
SP Domagnano	2-0 W	3-0 W
SS San Giovanni	3-2 W	1-0 W
La Fiorita	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Fiori (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tre Penne

DDDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
20/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	11	W
29/08	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
16/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
09/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	10	D
03/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Tre Fiori

DWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
18/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
11/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
30/08	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-1	5-2	4	3	W
26/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
19/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
08/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tre Penne vs Tre Fiori?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tre Penne win (41%). Probabilities: Tre Penne 41%, draw 28%, Tre Fiori 31%.

How many goals are expected in Tre Penne vs Tre Fiori?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Tre Penne 1.37 · Tre Fiori 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tre Penne vs Tre Fiori?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.