Football · San Marino Campionato · 23/10, 21:15
Prediction: Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Virtus
Team pages: Juvenes/Dogana · SS Virtus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Juvenes/Dogana0.57
SS Virtus1.91
1X2
Juvenes/Dogana
Draw
SS Virtus
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-2 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Juvenes/Dogana
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
SS Virtus
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Juvenes/Dogana
0–1–5
SS Virtus
(6 last)
- Juvenes/Dogana0-2SS Virtus
- SS Virtus0-0Juvenes/Dogana
- SS Virtus2-0Juvenes/Dogana
- Juvenes/Dogana0-3SS Virtus
- Juvenes/Dogana0-2SS Virtus
- SS Virtus1-0Juvenes/Dogana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juvenes/Dogana 1438 · SS Virtus 1606
| Juvenes/Dogana | Draw | SS Virtus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 22% | 69% |
| Market | 11% | 18% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Virtus (rating 1438 vs 1606).
- H2H favours SS Virtus: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Juvenes/Dogana | SS Virtus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 2.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juvenes/Dogana 0–1–5 SS Virtus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 San Marino Campionato | Juvenes/Dogana | 0-2 HT 0-1 | SS Virtus |
| 03/05/26 San Marino Campionato | SS Virtus | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Juvenes/Dogana |
| 08/03/26 San Marino Campionato | SS Virtus | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Juvenes/Dogana |
| 08/11/25 San Marino Campionato | Juvenes/Dogana | 0-3 HT 0-0 | SS Virtus |
| 25/01/25 San Marino Campionato | Juvenes/Dogana | 0-2 HT 0-0 | SS Virtus |
| 20/09/24 San Marino Campionato | SS Virtus | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Juvenes/Dogana |
Standings · San Marino Campionato
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | SS Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | SS Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | AC Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | FC Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | SP Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | SP Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | SS Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 3 |
| 12 | SS San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Juvenes/Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy U22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| 16 | SC Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juvenes/Dogana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Tre Penne San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | AC Libertas San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | SC Faetano San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | AC Libertas San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 26/04 | SS Murata San Marino Campionato |
2-0 | 5-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Pennarossa San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
SS Virtus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato |
4-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/09 | Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | AC Libertas San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 04/09 | FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Virtus?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Virtus win (70%). Probabilities: Juvenes/Dogana 10%, draw 20%, SS Virtus 70%.
How many goals are expected in Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Virtus?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Juvenes/Dogana 0.57 · SS Virtus 1.91), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Juvenes/Dogana vs SS Virtus?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.