Football · San Marino Campionato · 24/10, 15:00
Prediction: SS Murata vs SP Domagnano
Team pages: SS Murata · SP Domagnano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.77Total
SS Murata1.05
SP Domagnano2.72
1X2
SS Murata
Draw
SP Domagnano
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
SS Murata
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
SP Domagnano
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SS Murata
1–2–3
SP Domagnano
(6 last)
- SP Domagnano5-0SS Murata
- SS Murata0-6SP Domagnano
- SP Domagnano0-0SS Murata
- SS Murata3-3SP Domagnano
- SP Domagnano0-1SS Murata
- SP Domagnano2-0SS Murata
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SS Murata 1372 · SP Domagnano 1523
| SS Murata | Draw | SP Domagnano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| Market | 11% | 17% | 72% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SP Domagnano (rating 1372 vs 1523).
- H2H favours SP Domagnano: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SS Murata | SP Domagnano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 3.1 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.4 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Murata 1–2–3 SP Domagnano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 San Marino Campionato | SP Domagnano | 5-0 HT 2-0 | SS Murata |
| 25/10/25 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 0-6 HT 0-4 | SP Domagnano |
| 26/01/25 San Marino Campionato | SP Domagnano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SS Murata |
| 21/09/24 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 3-3 HT 2-1 | SP Domagnano |
| 27/01/24 San Marino Campionato | SP Domagnano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SS Murata |
| 25/10/23 San Marino Cup | SP Domagnano | 2-0 HT 1-0 | SS Murata |
Standings · San Marino Campionato
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | SS Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | SS Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | AC Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | FC Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | SP Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | SP Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | SS Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 3 |
| 12 | SS San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Juvenes/Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy U22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| 16 | SC Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SS Murata | SP Domagnano |
|---|---|---|
| La Fiorita | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| SS San Giovanni | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| SS Folgore/Falciano | 0-5 L | 3-1 W |
| SS Virtus | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Tre Fiori | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 5 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: SP Domagnano (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SS Murata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 18/09 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Pennarossa San Marino Campionato |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/04 | Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Pennarossa San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
SP Domagnano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Tre Penne San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/09 | Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato |
3-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 28/08 | SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Tre Penne San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 12/05 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/05 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SS Murata vs SP Domagnano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SP Domagnano win (72%). Probabilities: SS Murata 11%, draw 17%, SP Domagnano 72%.
How many goals are expected in SS Murata vs SP Domagnano?
The model expects 3.77 goals (SS Murata 1.05 · SP Domagnano 2.72), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in SS Murata vs SP Domagnano?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.