Football · San Marino Campionato · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: FC Fiorentino vs SP Cailungo

Team pages: FC Fiorentino · SP Cailungo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

FC Fiorentino2.27

SP Cailungo1.05

1X2

64% 21% 16%

FC Fiorentino Draw SP Cailungo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Fiorentino 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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SP Cailungo 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Fiorentino 4–2 SP Cailungo (6 last)

SP Cailungo1-3FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino1-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo2-0FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino1-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo0-3FC Fiorentino
FC Fiorentino0-1SP Cailungo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Fiorentino 1499 · SP Cailungo 1398

	FC Fiorentino	Draw	SP Cailungo
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	64%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Fiorentino (rating 1499 vs 1398).
H2H favours FC Fiorentino: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Fiorentino	SP Cailungo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	0.8 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +36’	1.40	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Fiorentino 4–0–2 SP Cailungo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Fiorentino
23/11/25 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	1-0 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo
08/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Fiorentino
09/11/24 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	1-0 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo
24/01/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Fiorentino
23/09/23 San Marino Campionato	FC Fiorentino	0-1 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
2	Tre Penne	5	5	0	0	11	2	15
3	SS Virtus	5	4	1	0	11	2	13
4	Tre Fiori	5	4	0	1	15	5	12
5	SS Cosmos	5	3	1	1	10	4	10
6	La Fiorita	5	2	3	0	7	3	9
7	AC Libertas	5	2	2	1	6	6	8
8	FC Fiorentino	5	2	1	2	10	5	7
9	SP Domagnano	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
10	SP Cailungo	5	1	0	4	5	7	3
11	SS Murata	5	1	0	4	4	13	3
12	SS San Giovanni	5	1	0	4	4	11	3
13	Juvenes/Dogana	5	1	0	4	6	7	3
14	Pennarossa	5	1	0	4	8	21	3
15	San Marino Academy U22	5	0	2	3	1	10	2
16	SC Faetano	5	0	2	3	1	15	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Fiorentino	SP Cailungo
Pennarossa	1-3 L	1-2 L
SS Virtus	0-1 L	1-6 L
San Marino Academy U22	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Fiorentino (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Fiorentino

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	4-0	6-0	6	3	W
19/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-3	3	9	L
11/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
04/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
28/08	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
02/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-1	4-1	4	1	W
11/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

SP Cailungo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
20/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
12/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
05/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/08	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L
07/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Fiorentino vs SP Cailungo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Fiorentino win (64%). Probabilities: FC Fiorentino 64%, draw 21%, SP Cailungo 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Fiorentino vs SP Cailungo?

The model expects 3.32 goals (FC Fiorentino 2.27 · SP Cailungo 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Fiorentino vs SP Cailungo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.