Football · San Marino Campionato · 30/10, 21:15

Prediction: SP Cailungo vs Juvenes/Dogana

Team pages: SP Cailungo · Juvenes/Dogana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

SP Cailungo1.09

Juvenes/Dogana1.64

1X2

25% 26% 50%

SP Cailungo Draw Juvenes/Dogana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Cailungo 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLWLD

Juvenes/Dogana 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

SP Cailungo 0–1–5 Juvenes/Dogana (6 last)

Juvenes/Dogana1-1SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo0-2Juvenes/Dogana
SP Cailungo1-2Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana2-0SP Cailungo
Juvenes/Dogana1-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo0-1Juvenes/Dogana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Cailungo 1409 · Juvenes/Dogana 1432

	SP Cailungo	Draw	Juvenes/Dogana
Our model	24%	27%	49%
Market	25%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Juvenes/Dogana: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Cailungo	Juvenes/Dogana
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.47 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.62
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:51 +15’	3.60	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +41’	4.38	3.56	1.64
20:15 +20’	4.47▲	3.62▲	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Cailungo 0–1–5 Juvenes/Dogana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-1 HT 1-0	SP Cailungo
27/09/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-2 HT 0-1	Juvenes/Dogana
30/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-2 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
30/11/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	2-0 HT 1-0	SP Cailungo
14/04/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-0 HT 1-0	SP Cailungo
06/01/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	0-1 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	6	6	0	0	17	3	18
2	SS Virtus	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
5	SS Cosmos	6	4	1	1	14	4	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	7	3	10
7	FC Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	11	6	8
8	AC Libertas	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	SP Domagnano	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
10	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
11	SS San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
12	SS Murata	6	1	1	4	6	15	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	10	23	4
14	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
15	SC Faetano	6	0	3	3	1	15	3
16	San Marino Academy U22	6	0	2	4	1	14	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Cailungo	Juvenes/Dogana
AC Libertas	1-2 L	1-2 L
Tre Penne	0-2 L	0-2 L
SS Folgore/Falciano	0-1 L	1-2 L
SS Virtus	1-6 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Juvenes/Dogana (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Cailungo

LLLDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
09/10	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
20/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
12/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
05/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/08	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L
07/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	3	2	L

Juvenes/Dogana

WDDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/10	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
20/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
05/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
06/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	5-2	8	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Cailungo vs Juvenes/Dogana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Juvenes/Dogana win (50%). Probabilities: SP Cailungo 25%, draw 26%, Juvenes/Dogana 50%.

How many goals are expected in SP Cailungo vs Juvenes/Dogana?

The model expects 2.74 goals (SP Cailungo 1.09 · Juvenes/Dogana 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Cailungo vs Juvenes/Dogana?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.