Football · San Marino Campionato · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: La Fiorita vs SS Cosmos

Team pages: La Fiorita · SS Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

La Fiorita1.19

SS Cosmos0.78

1X2

46% 30% 24%

La Fiorita Draw SS Cosmos

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

La Fiorita 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDWWDW

SS Cosmos 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

La Fiorita 3–3–0 SS Cosmos (6 last)

La Fiorita3-1SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos0-1La Fiorita
SS Cosmos0-0La Fiorita
La Fiorita0-0SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos0-3La Fiorita
La Fiorita2-2SS Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · La Fiorita 1537 · SS Cosmos 1563

	La Fiorita	Draw	SS Cosmos
Our model	44%	33%	23%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours La Fiorita: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	La Fiorita	SS Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +16’	1.90	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · La Fiorita 3–3–0 SS Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 San Marino Campionato	La Fiorita	3-1 HT 3-1	SS Cosmos
21/12/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-1 HT 0-0	La Fiorita
13/05/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-0 HT 0-0	La Fiorita
10/05/25 San Marino Campionato	La Fiorita	0-0 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
01/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-3 HT 0-2	La Fiorita
02/11/24 San Marino Campionato	La Fiorita	2-2 HT 2-1	SS Cosmos

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	7	6	1	0	18	4	19
2	SS Virtus	7	6	1	0	13	2	19
3	Tre Penne	7	5	2	0	12	3	17
4	SS Cosmos	7	5	1	1	16	4	16
5	Tre Fiori	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
6	La Fiorita	7	3	4	0	8	3	13
7	FC Fiorentino	7	2	2	3	11	8	8
8	AC Libertas	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
9	SP Domagnano	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
10	SS San Giovanni	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
11	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
12	Pennarossa	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
13	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
14	SS Murata	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	San Marino Academy U22	7	0	3	4	2	15	3
16	SC Faetano	7	0	3	4	2	17	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	La Fiorita	SS Cosmos
AC Libertas	1-0 W	1-1 D
SS Murata	3-0 W	2-0 W
FC Fiorentino	1-1 D	2-0 W
San Marino Academy U22	1-1 D	4-0 W
Tre Penne	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: La Fiorita (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

La Fiorita

DWLDDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/10	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/10	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
19/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-1	2-1	2	0	W
11/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
06/09	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

SS Cosmos

WDDDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
23/10	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
11/10	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
13/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	3-0	6-1	1	5	W
04/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	3	11	L
29/08	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
03/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in La Fiorita vs SS Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a La Fiorita win (46%). Probabilities: La Fiorita 46%, draw 30%, SS Cosmos 24%.

How many goals are expected in La Fiorita vs SS Cosmos?

The model expects 1.97 goals (La Fiorita 1.19 · SS Cosmos 0.78), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in La Fiorita vs SS Cosmos?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.