Football · San Marino Campionato · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: SC Faetano vs SP Domagnano

Team pages: SC Faetano · SP Domagnano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

SC Faetano0.96

SP Domagnano2.27

1X2

14% 20% 66%

SC Faetano Draw SP Domagnano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Faetano 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDLDL

SP Domagnano 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLLDL

Head-to-head

SC Faetano 1–1–4 SP Domagnano (6 last)

SC Faetano2-4SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano3-1SC Faetano
SC Faetano0-1SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano4-1SC Faetano
SP Domagnano2-3SC Faetano
SC Faetano1-1SP Domagnano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Faetano 1387 · SP Domagnano 1493

	SC Faetano	Draw	SP Domagnano
Our model	14%	20%	66%
Market	14%	20%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SP Domagnano (rating 1387 vs 1493).
H2H favours SP Domagnano: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Faetano	SP Domagnano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +4’	6.50	4.50	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Faetano 1–1–4 SP Domagnano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/10/26 San Marino Cup	SC Faetano	2-4 HT 0-2	SP Domagnano
08/09/26 San Marino Cup	SP Domagnano	3-1 HT 2-1	SC Faetano
07/04/26 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	0-1 HT 0-1	SP Domagnano
07/12/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	4-1 HT 2-0	SC Faetano
08/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	2-3 HT 1-1	SC Faetano
08/11/24 San Marino Campionato	SC Faetano	1-1 HT 0-0	SP Domagnano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	7	6	1	0	18	4	19
2	SS Virtus	7	6	1	0	13	2	19
3	Tre Penne	7	5	2	0	12	3	17
4	SS Cosmos	7	5	1	1	16	4	16
5	Tre Fiori	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
6	La Fiorita	7	3	4	0	8	3	13
7	FC Fiorentino	7	2	2	3	11	8	8
8	AC Libertas	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
9	SP Domagnano	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
10	SS San Giovanni	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
11	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
12	Pennarossa	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
13	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
14	SS Murata	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	San Marino Academy U22	7	0	3	4	2	15	3
16	SC Faetano	7	0	3	4	2	17	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Faetano	SP Domagnano
SS San Giovanni	1-2 L	4-0 W
La Fiorita	0-0 D	1-2 L
Tre Fiori	0-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SP Domagnano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Faetano

WLLLLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	0	0	L
25/10	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/10	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-4	0-6	4	3	L
18/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
13/09	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
04/09	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-4	3	5	L
28/08	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
26/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
11/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

SP Domagnano

LWLWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
24/10	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-2	9	4	D
11/10	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	0	7	L
19/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-2	2	0	L
11/09	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-3	6	2	L
04/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	3-0	4-0	0	0	W
28/08	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
16/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
12/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	0	8	W
09/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Faetano vs SP Domagnano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SP Domagnano win (66%). Probabilities: SC Faetano 14%, draw 20%, SP Domagnano 66%.

How many goals are expected in SC Faetano vs SP Domagnano?

The model expects 3.23 goals (SC Faetano 0.96 · SP Domagnano 2.27), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Faetano vs SP Domagnano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.