Football · San Marino Campionato · 08/11, 15:00

Prediction: SP Cailungo vs Tre Fiori

Team pages: SP Cailungo · Tre Fiori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

SP Cailungo0.84

Tre Fiori2.58

1X2

9% 16% 74%

SP Cailungo Draw Tre Fiori

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Cailungo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Tre Fiori 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SP Cailungo 0–6 Tre Fiori (6 last)

Tre Fiori3-2SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo1-4Tre Fiori
SP Cailungo1-2Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori7-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo1-3Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori2-1SP Cailungo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Cailungo 1398 · Tre Fiori 1612

	SP Cailungo	Draw	Tre Fiori
Our model	9%	17%	74%
Market	9%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Fiori (rating 1398 vs 1612).
H2H favours Tre Fiori: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Cailungo	Tre Fiori
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.2	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.50

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:33 +24’	9.50	5.50	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Cailungo 0–0–6 Tre Fiori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	3-2 HT 1-1	SP Cailungo
08/11/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-4 HT 1-2	Tre Fiori
13/04/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-2 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
15/12/24 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	7-0 HT 4-0	SP Cailungo
13/03/24 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-3 HT 0-2	Tre Fiori
02/12/23 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	2-1 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	8	7	1	0	20	4	22
2	SS Virtus	8	6	1	1	13	4	19
3	Tre Penne	7	5	2	0	12	3	17
4	La Fiorita	8	4	4	0	10	4	16
5	Tre Fiori	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
6	SS Cosmos	8	5	1	2	17	6	16
7	SP Domagnano	8	3	1	4	11	11	10
8	FC Fiorentino	7	2	2	3	11	8	8
9	AC Libertas	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
10	Juvenes/Dogana	8	2	1	5	8	9	7
11	SS San Giovanni	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
12	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
13	Pennarossa	8	1	2	5	11	25	5
14	SS Murata	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	San Marino Academy U22	7	0	3	4	2	15	3
16	SC Faetano	8	0	3	5	2	19	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Cailungo	Tre Fiori
AC Libertas	1-2 L	3-0 W
SS San Giovanni	3-0 W	1-0 W
Tre Penne	0-2 L	0-0 D
SP Domagnano	1-2 L	3-0 W
SS Virtus	1-6 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Fiori (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Cailungo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
24/10	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
09/10	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
20/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
12/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
05/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/08	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L

Tre Fiori

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	14	3	W
23/10	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
10/10	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
18/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
11/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
30/08	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-1	5-2	4	3	W
26/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
19/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Cailungo vs Tre Fiori?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tre Fiori win (74%). Probabilities: SP Cailungo 9%, draw 16%, Tre Fiori 74%.

How many goals are expected in SP Cailungo vs Tre Fiori?

The model expects 3.42 goals (SP Cailungo 0.84 · Tre Fiori 2.58), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Cailungo vs Tre Fiori?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.