Football · San Marino Campionato · 08/11, 15:00
Prediction: Tre Penne vs SS Murata
Team pages: Tre Penne · SS Murata
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
Tre Penne2.85
SS Murata0.85
1X2
Tre Penne
Draw
SS Murata
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Tre Penne
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
SS Murata
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tre Penne
4–2–0
SS Murata
(6 last)
- SS Murata0-4Tre Penne
- Tre Penne2-0SS Murata
- Tre Penne2-2SS Murata
- SS Murata2-4Tre Penne
- SS Murata1-1Tre Penne
- SS Murata0-2Tre Penne
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tre Penne 1645 · SS Murata 1382
| Tre Penne | Draw | SS Murata | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Penne (rating 1645 vs 1382).
- H2H favours Tre Penne: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tre Penne | SS Murata | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tre Penne 4–2–0 SS Murata
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Tre Penne |
| 22/11/25 San Marino Campionato | Tre Penne | 2-0 HT 1-0 | SS Murata |
| 12/04/25 San Marino Campionato | Tre Penne | 2-2 HT 0-0 | SS Murata |
| 15/12/24 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 2-4 HT 1-0 | Tre Penne |
| 18/05/24 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tre Penne |
| 21/02/24 San Marino Campionato | SS Murata | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Tre Penne |
Standings · San Marino Campionato
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 22 |
| 2 | SS Virtus | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | La Fiorita | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Tre Fiori | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | SS Cosmos | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | SP Domagnano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Fiorentino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | AC Libertas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Juvenes/Dogana | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | SS San Giovanni | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 12 | SP Cailungo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Pennarossa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 5 |
| 14 | SS Murata | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 4 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy U22 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Faetano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tre Penne | SS Murata |
|---|---|---|
| SS Folgore/Falciano | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| Tre Fiori | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| SP Domagnano | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Juvenes/Dogana | 2-0 W | 2-5 L |
| SS Cosmos | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| SS San Giovanni | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| La Fiorita | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Tre Penne (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tre Penne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/10 | Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 29/08 | SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
SS Murata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 18/09 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Pennarossa San Marino Campionato |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
0-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tre Penne vs SS Murata?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tre Penne win (82%). Probabilities: Tre Penne 82%, draw 12%, SS Murata 7%.
How many goals are expected in Tre Penne vs SS Murata?
The model expects 3.7 goals (Tre Penne 2.85 · SS Murata 0.85), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tre Penne vs SS Murata?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.