Football · San Marino Campionato · 08/11, 15:00
Prediction: FC Fiorentino vs AC Libertas
Team pages: FC Fiorentino · AC Libertas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
FC Fiorentino1.41
AC Libertas1.31
1X2
FC Fiorentino
Draw
AC Libertas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Fiorentino
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
AC Libertas
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Fiorentino
4–1–1
AC Libertas
(6 last)
- FC Fiorentino1-1AC Libertas
- AC Libertas0-1FC Fiorentino
- FC Fiorentino1-2AC Libertas
- AC Libertas1-3FC Fiorentino
- FC Fiorentino4-3AC Libertas
- AC Libertas0-1FC Fiorentino
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Fiorentino 1473 · AC Libertas 1428
| FC Fiorentino | Draw | AC Libertas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Fiorentino (rating 1473 vs 1428).
- H2H favours FC Fiorentino: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Fiorentino | AC Libertas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.7 | 3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Fiorentino 4–1–1 AC Libertas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 San Marino Campionato | FC Fiorentino | 1-1 HT 1-1 | AC Libertas |
| 30/11/25 San Marino Campionato | AC Libertas | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Fiorentino |
| 15/03/25 San Marino Campionato | FC Fiorentino | 1-2 HT 1-1 | AC Libertas |
| 24/11/24 San Marino Campionato | AC Libertas | 1-3 HT 1-1 | FC Fiorentino |
| 09/03/24 San Marino Campionato | FC Fiorentino | 4-3 HT 2-1 | AC Libertas |
| 26/11/23 San Marino Campionato | AC Libertas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Fiorentino |
Standings · San Marino Campionato
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 22 |
| 2 | SS Virtus | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | La Fiorita | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Tre Fiori | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | SS Cosmos | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | SP Domagnano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Fiorentino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | AC Libertas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Juvenes/Dogana | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | SS San Giovanni | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 12 | SP Cailungo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Pennarossa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 5 |
| 14 | SS Murata | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 4 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy U22 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Faetano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Fiorentino | AC Libertas |
|---|---|---|
| SS Cosmos | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| SP Cailungo | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| SC Faetano | 6-0 W | 1-1 D |
| La Fiorita | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| SS Virtus | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Fiorentino (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Fiorentino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | SC Faetano San Marino Campionato |
4-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Pennarossa San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 11/09 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 04/09 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 28/08 | San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
AC Libertas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | La Fiorita San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/10 | SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 18/09 | SC Faetano San Marino Campionato |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 29/04 | Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 11 | D |
| 26/04 | SS Virtus San Marino Campionato |
0-4 | 0-9 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Tre Penne San Marino Campionato |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Fiorentino vs AC Libertas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Fiorentino win (39%). Probabilities: FC Fiorentino 39%, draw 27%, AC Libertas 34%.
How many goals are expected in FC Fiorentino vs AC Libertas?
The model expects 2.73 goals (FC Fiorentino 1.41 · AC Libertas 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Fiorentino vs AC Libertas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.