Football · San Marino Campionato · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: Pennarossa vs San Marino Academy U22

Team pages: Pennarossa · San Marino Academy U22

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Pennarossa1.64

San Marino Academy U221.3

1X2

45% 26% 30%

Pennarossa Draw San Marino Academy U22

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pennarossa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLLWLD

San Marino Academy U22 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDDLLL

Head-to-head

Pennarossa 1–1–4 San Marino Academy U22 (6 last)

San Marino Academy U221-1Pennarossa
Pennarossa3-1San Marino Academy U22
Pennarossa1-3San Marino Academy U22
San Marino Academy U222-1Pennarossa
Pennarossa0-1San Marino Academy U22
San Marino Academy U224-0Pennarossa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pennarossa 1488 · San Marino Academy U22 1404

	Pennarossa	Draw	San Marino Academy U22
Our model	44%	26%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pennarossa (rating 1488 vs 1404).
H2H favours San Marino Academy U22: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pennarossa	San Marino Academy U22
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.7	0.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.96
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 5.14 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
05:27 +36’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +24’	1.49	3.96	5.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pennarossa 1–1–4 San Marino Academy U22

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	1-1 HT 0-0	Pennarossa
02/11/25 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	3-1 HT 2-1	San Marino Academy U22
12/04/25 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	1-3 HT 1-1	San Marino Academy U22
14/12/24 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	2-1 HT 1-0	Pennarossa
28/01/24 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	0-1 HT 0-1	San Marino Academy U22
01/10/23 San Marino Campionato	San Marino Academy U22	4-0 HT 1-0	Pennarossa

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	6	6	0	0	17	3	18
2	SS Virtus	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
5	SS Cosmos	6	4	1	1	14	4	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	7	3	10
7	FC Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	11	6	8
8	AC Libertas	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	SP Domagnano	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
10	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
11	SS San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
12	SS Murata	6	1	1	4	6	15	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	10	23	4
14	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
15	SC Faetano	6	0	3	3	1	15	3
16	San Marino Academy U22	6	0	2	4	1	14	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pennarossa	San Marino Academy U22
SS San Giovanni	2-2 D	0-1 L
SS Folgore/Falciano	1-5 L	0-2 L
FC Fiorentino	3-1 W	0-2 L
SS Cosmos	1-6 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pennarossa

WDDLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-2	10	8	D
09/10	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-4	1-5	8	3	L
19/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-0	3-1	8	9	W
13/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	5	5	L
06/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
30/08	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-5	5	3	L
29/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
26/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	1	0	D
18/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

San Marino Academy U22

LLLDLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
11/10	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-4	0-5	5	0	L
19/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
13/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
06/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
28/08	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
25/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
11/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
07/04	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pennarossa vs San Marino Academy U22?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pennarossa win (45%). Probabilities: Pennarossa 45%, draw 26%, San Marino Academy U22 30%.

How many goals are expected in Pennarossa vs San Marino Academy U22?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Pennarossa 1.64 · San Marino Academy U22 1.3), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pennarossa vs San Marino Academy U22?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.