Football · San Marino Campionato · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Virtus

Team pages: SS Folgore/Falciano · SS Virtus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

SS Folgore/Falciano0.99

SS Virtus1.41

1X2

26% 27% 46%

SS Folgore/Falciano Draw SS Virtus

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Folgore/Falciano 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWD

SS Virtus 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

SS Folgore/Falciano 0–6 SS Virtus (6 last)

SS Folgore/Falciano1-2SS Virtus
SS Virtus2-1SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano0-2SS Virtus
SS Virtus1-0SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Virtus2-0SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano0-2SS Virtus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Folgore/Falciano 1600 · SS Virtus 1637

	SS Folgore/Falciano	Draw	SS Virtus
Our model	25%	29%	45%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SS Virtus: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Folgore/Falciano	SS Virtus
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.8	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +15’	3.30	3.50	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Folgore/Falciano 0–0–6 SS Virtus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	1-2 HT 1-1	SS Virtus
12/09/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	2-1 HT 2-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
01/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	0-2 HT 0-2	SS Virtus
01/11/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	1-0 HT 0-0	SS Folgore/Falciano
10/03/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Virtus	2-0 HT 1-0	SS Folgore/Falciano
26/11/23 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	0-2 HT 0-1	SS Virtus

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	7	6	1	0	18	4	19
2	SS Virtus	7	6	1	0	13	2	19
3	Tre Penne	7	5	2	0	12	3	17
4	SS Cosmos	7	5	1	1	16	4	16
5	Tre Fiori	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
6	La Fiorita	7	3	4	0	8	3	13
7	FC Fiorentino	7	2	2	3	11	8	8
8	AC Libertas	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
9	SP Domagnano	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
10	SS San Giovanni	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
11	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
12	Pennarossa	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
13	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
14	SS Murata	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	San Marino Academy U22	7	0	3	4	2	15	3
16	SC Faetano	7	0	3	4	2	17	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Folgore/Falciano	SS Virtus
AC Libertas	2-1 W	2-0 W
San Marino Academy U22	2-0 W	5-0 W
Juvenes/Dogana	2-1 W	1-0 W
SP Domagnano	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SS Virtus (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Folgore/Falciano

WWLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
25/10	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/10	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	4-1	5-1	12	3	W
19/09	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
05/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
28/08	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
05/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-2	7-3	1	1	W

SS Virtus

WLWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
23/10	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
11/10	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	4-0	5-0	5	0	W
18/09	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
12/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
04/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
30/08	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-2	8	8	L
09/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Virtus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Virtus win (46%). Probabilities: SS Folgore/Falciano 26%, draw 27%, SS Virtus 46%.

How many goals are expected in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Virtus?

The model expects 2.41 goals (SS Folgore/Falciano 0.99 · SS Virtus 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Folgore/Falciano vs SS Virtus?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.