Football · San Marino Campionato · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Juvenes/Dogana vs Pennarossa

Team pages: Juvenes/Dogana · Pennarossa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Juvenes/Dogana1.74

Pennarossa1.21

1X2

49% 26% 26%

Juvenes/Dogana Draw Pennarossa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Juvenes/Dogana 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLLLLD

Pennarossa 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLWLDD

Head-to-head

Juvenes/Dogana 5–1–0 Pennarossa (6 last)

Pennarossa0-0Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana2-1Pennarossa
Juvenes/Dogana1-0Pennarossa
Pennarossa0-2Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana3-1Pennarossa
Pennarossa1-2Juvenes/Dogana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juvenes/Dogana 1433 · Pennarossa 1464

	Juvenes/Dogana	Draw	Pennarossa
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Juvenes/Dogana: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juvenes/Dogana	Pennarossa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +37’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Juvenes/Dogana 5–1–0 Pennarossa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	0-0 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
21/12/25 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	2-1 HT 0-0	Pennarossa
05/04/25 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-0 HT 1-0	Pennarossa
08/12/24 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	0-2 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
11/02/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	3-1 HT 1-1	Pennarossa
07/10/23 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	1-2 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana

Standings · San Marino Campionato

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	7	6	1	0	18	4	19
2	SS Virtus	7	6	1	0	13	2	19
3	Tre Penne	7	5	2	0	12	3	17
4	SS Cosmos	7	5	1	1	16	4	16
5	Tre Fiori	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
6	La Fiorita	7	3	4	0	8	3	13
7	FC Fiorentino	7	2	2	3	11	8	8
8	AC Libertas	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
9	SP Domagnano	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
10	SS San Giovanni	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
11	SP Cailungo	7	1	2	4	7	9	5
12	Pennarossa	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
13	Juvenes/Dogana	7	1	1	5	7	9	4
14	SS Murata	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	San Marino Academy U22	7	0	3	4	2	15	3
16	SC Faetano	7	0	3	4	2	17	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juvenes/Dogana	Pennarossa
SS Cosmos	0-1 L	1-6 L
SS Folgore/Falciano	1-2 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Juvenes/Dogana (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juvenes/Dogana

DDLWLLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
23/10	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/10	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
20/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
05/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
06/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	11	D

Pennarossa

DDLLLLWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	0	1	D
23/10	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-2	10	8	D
09/10	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-4	1-5	8	3	L
19/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-0	3-1	8	9	W
13/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	5	5	L
06/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
30/08	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-5	5	3	L
29/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
26/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	1	0	D
18/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juvenes/Dogana vs Pennarossa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juvenes/Dogana win (49%). Probabilities: Juvenes/Dogana 49%, draw 26%, Pennarossa 26%.

How many goals are expected in Juvenes/Dogana vs Pennarossa?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Juvenes/Dogana 1.74 · Pennarossa 1.21), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juvenes/Dogana vs Pennarossa?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.