Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 10/10, 18:30
Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs SD Aucas
Team pages: Independiente del Valle · SD Aucas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Independiente del Valle1.93
SD Aucas0.89
1X2
Independiente del Valle
Draw
SD Aucas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
SD Aucas
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle
4–2–0
SD Aucas
(6 last)
- SD Aucas0-3Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle2-2SD Aucas
- Independiente del Valle2-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas1-2Independiente del Valle
- SD Aucas0-2Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle1-1SD Aucas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1618 · SD Aucas 1489
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1618 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.4 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 4–2–0 SD Aucas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Independiente del Valle |
| 14/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-2 HT 2-1 | SD Aucas |
| 19/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 2-0 | SD Aucas |
| 28/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente del Valle |
| 01/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 25/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 74 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | 51 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 30 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 44 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Libertad | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Macara | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Leones FC | 3-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Delfin SC | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (61%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 61%, draw 23%, SD Aucas 16%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Independiente del Valle 1.93 · SD Aucas 0.89), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.