Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 19/10, 22:30

Prediction: Mushuc Runa vs Orense

Team pages: Mushuc Runa · Orense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Mushuc Runa1.65

Orense1.07

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Mushuc Runa Draw Orense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mushuc Runa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDDLDL

Orense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Mushuc Runa 3–3 Orense (6 last)

Mushuc Runa2-1Orense
Orense3-2Mushuc Runa
Orense3-1Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa2-5Orense
Mushuc Runa2-1Orense
Mushuc Runa3-0Orense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mushuc Runa 1511 · Orense 1440

	Mushuc Runa	Draw	Orense
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mushuc Runa (rating 1511 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mushuc Runa	Orense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.39
2	5.00 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.33 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:18 +5’	1.67	3.50	5.00
11:11 +5’	1.73▲	3.50	4.75▼
19:50 +25’	1.90▲	3.30▼	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:30 +788’	1.93	3.31	4.03
18:08 +35’	1.90▼	3.33▲	4.14▲
23:26 +5’	1.78▼	3.45▲	4.55▲
09:43 +50’	1.84▲	3.39▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mushuc Runa 3–0–3 Orense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-1 HT 1-1	Orense
19/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	3-2 HT 3-0	Mushuc Runa
14/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	3-1 HT 1-0	Mushuc Runa
17/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-5 HT 2-2	Orense
06/03/25 Copa Sudamericana	Mushuc Runa	2-1 HT 1-1	Orense
22/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	3-0 HT 1-0	Orense

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mushuc Runa	32	9	12	11	38	42	39
2	Deportivo Cuenca	32	10	8	14	26	38	38
3	Orense	32	9	7	16	37	49	34
4	Tecnico Universitario	32	10	3	19	29	44	33
5	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	23	34	32
6	Manta FC	32	7	6	19	20	43	27

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mushuc Runa	Orense
Delfin SC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	0-0 D
Guayaquil City	1-3 L	4-3 W
Leones FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-0 D	0-3 L
Manta FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mushuc Runa

WWDDWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
08/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
02/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
28/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W

Orense

LDWLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
21/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
15/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
08/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	4-3	6	4	W
03/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
30/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
16/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
09/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
01/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mushuc Runa vs Orense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mushuc Runa win (49%). Probabilities: Mushuc Runa 49%, draw 28%, Orense 23%.

How many goals are expected in Mushuc Runa vs Orense?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Mushuc Runa 1.65 · Orense 1.07), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Orense?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.