Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 17/10, 21:00
Prediction: Macara vs Independiente del Valle
Team pages: Macara · Independiente del Valle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Macara1.28
Independiente del Valle1.74
1X2
Macara
Draw
Independiente del Valle
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Macara
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Independiente del Valle
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Macara
0–1–5
Independiente del Valle
(6 last)
- Independiente del Valle3-1Macara
- Macara0-3Independiente del Valle
- Macara1-2Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle1-1Macara
- Independiente del Valle7-0Macara
- Macara0-1Independiente del Valle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara 1544 · Independiente del Valle 1603
| Macara | Draw | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1544 vs 1603).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.3 | 3.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.4 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 0–1–5 Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Macara |
| 16/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 12/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 16/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 24/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 7-0 HT 6-0 | Macara |
| 26/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 57 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 26 | 52 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 30 | 51 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | 50 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 27 | 44 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Macara | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| SD Aucas | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Orense | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (46%). Probabilities: Macara 27%, draw 27%, Independiente del Valle 46%.
How many goals are expected in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Macara 1.28 · Independiente del Valle 1.74), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.