Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 18/10, 23:30

Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Team pages: Barcelona Guayaquil · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Barcelona Guayaquil1.32

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.11

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Barcelona Guayaquil Draw Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona Guayaquil 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLWDDL

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Barcelona Guayaquil 0–4–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (6 last)

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Barcelona Guayaquil1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil2-3Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-2Barcelona Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1474 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1536

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Draw	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1474 vs 1536).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.6	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.27
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.42 ★
2	2.60 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:14 +9’	2.60	3.20	2.60
11:31 +3’	2.50▼	3.20	2.70▲
17:45 +10’	2.25▼	3.30▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:43 +295’	2.27	3.42	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 0–4–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-1 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
22/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
07/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 HT 1-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
03/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 HT 0-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
01/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-3 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
11/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	75	34	77
2	Macara	32	17	6	9	44	34	57
3	LDU Quito	32	15	7	10	35	26	52
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	32	14	9	9	52	30	51
5	SD Aucas	32	14	8	10	35	32	50
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	31	11	11	9	33	27	44

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona Guayaquil	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
LDU Quito	1-2 L	1-2 L
Delfin SC	1-1 D	1-0 W
SD Aucas	1-1 D	1-1 D
Independiente del Valle	2-1 W	2-2 D
Manta FC	0-2 L	5-1 W
Orense	3-0 W	2-1 W
Macara	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona Guayaquil

LDLDWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	6	8	L
14/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
07/09	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
03/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

WLDWDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
21/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
15/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
06/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
03/09	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
22/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	5-1	6	3	W
18/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	5-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona Guayaquil win (41%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 41%, draw 29%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 30%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.32 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.