Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 17/10, 23:30

Prediction: SD Aucas vs LDU Quito

Team pages: SD Aucas · LDU Quito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.93Total

SD Aucas0.92

LDU Quito1.01

1X2

32% 31% 37%

SD Aucas Draw LDU Quito

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

SD Aucas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDDLL

LDU Quito 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDWDWW

Head-to-head

SD Aucas 1–1–4 LDU Quito (6 last)

LDU Quito1-0SD Aucas
SD Aucas0-1LDU Quito
LDU Quito0-0SD Aucas
SD Aucas1-0LDU Quito
LDU Quito3-1SD Aucas
SD Aucas0-1LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1505 · LDU Quito 1562

	SD Aucas	Draw	LDU Quito
Our model	31%	34%	35%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 1.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (rating 1505 vs 1562).
H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Aucas	LDU Quito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	3.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.72 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:15 +1’	2.60	3.10	2.63
17:25 +8’	2.80▲	3.20▲	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +54’	2.71	3.04	2.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 1–1–4 LDU Quito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Ecuador Cup	LDU Quito	1-0 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
17/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	0-1 HT 0-1	LDU Quito
23/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	0-0 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
09/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	1-0 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
18/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	3-1 HT 2-0	SD Aucas
17/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	0-1 HT 0-0	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	75	34	77
2	Macara	32	17	6	9	44	34	57
3	LDU Quito	32	15	7	10	35	26	52
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	32	14	9	9	52	30	51
5	SD Aucas	32	14	8	10	35	32	50
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	31	11	11	9	33	27	44

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Aucas	LDU Quito
Independiente del Valle	1-2 L	0-2 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	2-1 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 D	2-1 W
Delfin SC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Emelec	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SD Aucas

WWLWWDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
19/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
12/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
07/09	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
03/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
30/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
17/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
08/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
02/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

LDU Quito

WLWWLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
21/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
13/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
05/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
24/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs LDU Quito?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LDU Quito win (37%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 32%, draw 31%, LDU Quito 37%.

How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs LDU Quito?

The model expects 1.93 goals (SD Aucas 0.92 · LDU Quito 1.01), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs LDU Quito?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.