Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/10, 22:30

Prediction: Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa

Team pages: Delfin SC · Mushuc Runa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.86Total

Delfin SC0.93

Mushuc Runa0.93

1X2

34% 32% 34%

Delfin SC Draw Mushuc Runa

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Delfin SC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLDD

Mushuc Runa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWDDLD

Head-to-head

Delfin SC 3–3 Mushuc Runa (6 last)

Mushuc Runa1-0Delfin SC
Delfin SC1-0Mushuc Runa
Delfin SC3-1Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa2-0Delfin SC
Delfin SC4-2Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa5-0Delfin SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Delfin SC 1488 · Mushuc Runa 1501

	Delfin SC	Draw	Mushuc Runa
Our model	33%	35%	33%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Delfin SC	Mushuc Runa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.13 ★
2	2.63 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.13

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:55 +17’	2.63	3.00	2.63
08:33 +4’	2.35▼	3.00	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:40 +85’	2.62	3.03	2.84
23:29 +25’	2.34▼	3.13▲	3.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Delfin SC 3–0–3 Mushuc Runa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC
03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Mushuc Runa
16/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	3-1 HT 1-0	Mushuc Runa
18/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-0 HT 1-0	Delfin SC
08/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	4-2 HT 1-0	Mushuc Runa
19/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	5-0 HT 2-0	Delfin SC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mushuc Runa	31	9	12	10	36	39	39
2	Deportivo Cuenca	31	10	7	14	26	38	37
3	Orense	31	9	6	16	37	49	33
4	Tecnico Universitario	31	10	3	18	29	43	33
5	Delfin SC	31	7	8	16	20	32	29
6	Manta FC	31	6	6	19	19	43	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Delfin SC	Mushuc Runa
Tecnico Universitario	1-1 D	3-0 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	0-0 D
LDU Quito	1-2 L	0-0 D
Leones FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Delfin SC

LLDLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
14/09	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
01/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
28/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
23/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
15/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-3	2-3	5	4	L
09/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	1	2	L
26/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Mushuc Runa

LWWDDWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
08/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
02/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
28/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
27/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Delfin SC win (34%). Probabilities: Delfin SC 34%, draw 32%, Mushuc Runa 34%.

How many goals are expected in Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa?

The model expects 1.86 goals (Delfin SC 0.93 · Mushuc Runa 0.93), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.