Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 11/10, 20:45

Prediction: Orense vs Deportivo Cuenca

Team pages: Orense · Deportivo Cuenca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Orense1.46

Deportivo Cuenca1.1

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Orense Draw Deportivo Cuenca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Orense 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLWLL

Deportivo Cuenca 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWLDD

Head-to-head

Orense 4–2–0 Deportivo Cuenca (6 last)

Orense2-0Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca1-3Orense
Deportivo Cuenca1-1Orense
Orense1-0Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca1-2Orense
Orense1-1Deportivo Cuenca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orense 1456 · Deportivo Cuenca 1448

	Orense	Draw	Deportivo Cuenca
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orense: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orense	Deportivo Cuenca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.1	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 09:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.19 ★
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.24
2	3.75 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.51

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +1’	1.95	3.25	3.75
06:23 +6’	2.15▲	3.20▼	3.30▼
21:36 +2’	2.10▼	3.20	3.40▲
07:01 +12’	2.05▼	3.20	3.50▲
09:19 +1’	2.10▲	3.20	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:14 +209’	2.15	3.30	3.35
12:30 +18’	2.18▲	3.29▼	3.29▼
22:52 +37’	2.19▲	3.23▼	3.34▲
22:11 +119’	2.20▲	3.18▼	3.37▲
20:45 +52’	2.16▼	3.24▲	3.54▲
05:11 +22’	2.09▼	3.26▲	3.68▲
09:07 +13’	2.19▲	3.24▼	3.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 4–2–0 Deportivo Cuenca

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	2-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca
22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-3 HT 0-1	Orense
31/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 HT 0-0	Orense
10/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca
10/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-2 HT 1-1	Orense
10/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Cuenca

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Relegation Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mushuc Runa	32	9	12	11	38	42	39
2	Deportivo Cuenca	31	10	7	14	26	38	37
3	Orense	31	9	6	16	37	49	33
4	Tecnico Universitario	32	10	3	19	29	44	33
5	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	23	34	32
6	Manta FC	32	7	6	19	20	43	27

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orense	Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Guayaquil City	4-3 W	1-0 W
Club Atletico Libertad	0-3 L	0-1 L
Independiente del Valle	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cuenca (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orense

LLDWLLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
15/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
08/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	4-3	6	4	W
03/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
30/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
16/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
09/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
01/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
26/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	11	6	L

Deportivo Cuenca

WLLLDLWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
13/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
07/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
02/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
16/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
02/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
28/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orense vs Deportivo Cuenca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orense win (44%). Probabilities: Orense 44%, draw 29%, Deportivo Cuenca 27%.

How many goals are expected in Orense vs Deportivo Cuenca?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Orense 1.46 · Deportivo Cuenca 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orense vs Deportivo Cuenca?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.