Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 10/10, 23:30

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Emelec

Team pages: Guayaquil City · Emelec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Guayaquil City1.07

Emelec1.23

1X2

31% 31% 38%

Guayaquil City Draw Emelec

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWLLWD

Emelec 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 2–4–0 Emelec (6 last)

Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Emelec1-3Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Emelec0-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City1-0Emelec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1510 · Emelec 1461

	Guayaquil City	Draw	Emelec
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	31%	31%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guayaquil City (rating 1510 vs 1461).
H2H favours Guayaquil City: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.5	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.09
2	2.70 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.49 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +18’	2.70	2.90	2.70
12:47 +1’	3.00▲	3.00▲	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +289’	2.94	3.09	2.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 2–4–0 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-3 HT 1-1	Guayaquil City
23/10/25 Ecuador Cup	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
04/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
30/05/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
15/02/23 Club Friendly List	Guayaquil City	1-0 HT 0-0	Emelec

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	31	12	8	11	35	35	44
2	Leones FC	31	10	10	11	32	33	40
3	Guayaquil City	31	10	10	11	34	37	40
4	Emelec	31	10	9	12	26	36	39

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Emelec
Leones FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 L	1-2 L
LDU Quito	2-1 W	0-2 L
Tecnico Universitario	3-2 W	2-1 W
Club Atletico Libertad	2-2 D	1-2 L
Macara	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Guayaquil City (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guayaquil City

DLDDWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
08/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
02/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-2	1	3	D
10/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	0	9	L
27/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Emelec

LLDWLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
13/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
08/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
24/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
10/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
02/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
28/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Emelec?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Emelec win (38%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 31%, draw 31%, Emelec 38%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Emelec?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Guayaquil City 1.07 · Emelec 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Emelec?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.