Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 11/10, 18:30
Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Macara
Team pages: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador · Macara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.81
Macara1.07
1X2
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Draw
Macara
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Macara
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
5–1–0
Macara
(6 last)
- Macara1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador4-0Macara
- Macara1-4Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-0Macara
- Macara1-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-0Macara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1565 · Macara 1542
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Draw | Macara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Macara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5–1–0 Macara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 24/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 27/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 06/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Macara |
| 30/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 02/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Macara |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | 51 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 44 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Macara |
|---|---|---|
| Orense | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| SD Aucas | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Independiente del Valle | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Manta FC | 5-1 W | 4-3 W |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Guayaquil City | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 26/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Macara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (53%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 53%, draw 26%, Macara 21%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Macara?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.81 · Macara 1.07), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Macara?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.