Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 11/10, 23:30
Prediction: LDU Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil
Team pages: LDU Quito · Barcelona Guayaquil
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
LDU Quito1.71
Barcelona Guayaquil0.72
1X2
LDU Quito
Draw
Barcelona Guayaquil
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
LDU Quito
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Barcelona Guayaquil
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
LDU Quito
4–1–1
Barcelona Guayaquil
(6 last)
- Barcelona Guayaquil0-1LDU Quito
- LDU Quito0-2Barcelona Guayaquil
- Barcelona Guayaquil2-2LDU Quito
- LDU Quito3-0Barcelona Guayaquil
- Barcelona Guayaquil0-1LDU Quito
- LDU Quito3-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1549 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1486
| LDU Quito | Draw | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 26% | 14% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (rating 1549 vs 1486).
- H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| LDU Quito | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.2 | 2.9 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 4–1–1 Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-1 HT 0-0 | LDU Quito |
| 04/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 23/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-2 HT 1-1 | LDU Quito |
| 18/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 25/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-1 HT 0-1 | LDU Quito |
| 19/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | 51 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 44 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | LDU Quito | Barcelona Guayaquil |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Mushuc Runa | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| SD Aucas | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Independiente del Valle | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Delfin SC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
LDU Quito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/09 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 29/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 27/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in LDU Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito win (60%). Probabilities: LDU Quito 60%, draw 25%, Barcelona Guayaquil 15%.
How many goals are expected in LDU Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model expects 2.43 goals (LDU Quito 1.71 · Barcelona Guayaquil 0.72), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.