Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 25/10, 22:30
Prediction: SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil
Team pages: SD Aucas · Barcelona Guayaquil
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
SD Aucas1.3
Barcelona Guayaquil0.75
1X2
SD Aucas
Draw
Barcelona Guayaquil
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
SD Aucas
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Barcelona Guayaquil
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SD Aucas
1–3–2
Barcelona Guayaquil
(6 last)
- SD Aucas1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
- Barcelona Guayaquil3-0SD Aucas
- Barcelona Guayaquil1-0SD Aucas
- Barcelona Guayaquil1-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas2-0Barcelona Guayaquil
- SD Aucas1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1474 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1509
| SD Aucas | Draw | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 31% | 20% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.6 | 3.1 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 1–3–2 Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 17/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 3-0 HT 1-0 | SD Aucas |
| 14/02/26 America Friendlies | Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-0 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 28/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-1 HT 1-1 | SD Aucas |
| 02/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 02/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 32 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 75 | 35 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 60 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 27 | 53 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 31 | 52 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 33 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 28 | 45 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Aucas | Barcelona Guayaquil |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Quito | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Independiente del Valle | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Macara | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Manta FC | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Delfin SC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Leones FC | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: SD Aucas (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Aucas win (49%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 49%, draw 29%, Barcelona Guayaquil 21%.
How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model expects 2.05 goals (SD Aucas 1.3 · Barcelona Guayaquil 0.75), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.