Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 16/09, 22:30

Prediction: Monagas vs Zamora

Team pages: Monagas · Zamora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Monagas1.54

Zamora1

1X2

48% 28% 23%

Monagas Draw Zamora

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Monagas 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLWLW

Zamora 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWDLDL

Head-to-head

Monagas 4–2 Zamora (6 last)

Zamora2-1Monagas
Monagas1-0Zamora
Zamora2-0Monagas
Zamora2-3Monagas
Monagas2-1Zamora
Zamora2-4Monagas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monagas 1519 · Zamora 1485

	Monagas	Draw	Zamora
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	48%	29%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monagas: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monagas	Zamora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.2	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
05:06 +2’	1.85	3.10	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas 4–0–2 Zamora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Zamora	2-1 HT 1-0	Monagas
09/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-0 HT 0-0	Zamora
18/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Zamora	2-0 HT 1-0	Monagas
23/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Zamora	2-3 HT 0-2	Monagas
14/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	2-1 HT 1-0	Zamora
12/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Zamora	2-4 HT 1-1	Monagas

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	9	7	1	1	18	8	22
2	Deportivo Tachira	9	6	1	2	19	11	19
3	Deportivo La Guaira	9	5	1	3	19	11	16
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
5	Estudiantes Merida	9	4	3	2	10	9	15
6	Carabobo	9	4	2	3	10	7	14
7	Portuguesa	9	3	5	1	11	9	14
8	UCV	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
9	Monagas	9	3	1	5	10	12	10
10	Caracas	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
11	Trujillanos	9	3	1	5	9	13	10
12	Zamora	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
13	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	9	2	1	6	12	20	7
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	9	1	1	7	5	18	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monagas	Zamora
Academia Anzoategui FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Trujillanos	1-3 L	1-2 L
Portuguesa	0-0 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Tachira	2-3 L	2-5 L
Carabobo	1-0 W	0-0 D
UCV	1-2 L	2-0 W
Deportivo La Guaira	1-2 L	1-6 L
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Monagas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monagas

DLLWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
03/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
23/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
16/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
08/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
05/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
01/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
25/04	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	1	3	D

Zamora

DWLLLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
06/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
02/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-5	3	4	L
31/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
22/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
17/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-4	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
06/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
02/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
25/04	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monagas vs Zamora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monagas win (48%). Probabilities: Monagas 48%, draw 28%, Zamora 23%.

How many goals are expected in Monagas vs Zamora?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Monagas 1.54 · Zamora 1), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Monagas vs Zamora?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.