Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 20/09, 00:00

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa

Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello · Portuguesa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Academia Puerto Cabello1.5

Portuguesa0.68

1X2

57% 27% 17%

Academia Puerto Cabello Draw Portuguesa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDDLD

Portuguesa 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello 3–1–2 Portuguesa (6 last)

Portuguesa1-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello2-1Portuguesa
Portuguesa3-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Portuguesa0-1Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello2-1Portuguesa
Academia Puerto Cabello0-0Portuguesa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello 1521 · Portuguesa 1534

	Academia Puerto Cabello	Draw	Portuguesa
Our model	56%	28%	16%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Academia Puerto Cabello: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello	Portuguesa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	6.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.05

2 (+1)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.80 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +11’	1.57	3.60	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:48 +46’	1.56	3.56	5.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello 3–1–2 Portuguesa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
14/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	2-1 HT 2-1	Portuguesa
11/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	3-0 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
05/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	0-1 HT 0-1	Academia Puerto Cabello
28/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	2-1 HT 0-0	Portuguesa
23/07/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	0-0 HT 0-0	Portuguesa

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	10	8	1	1	21	8	25
2	Deportivo Tachira	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
3	Carabobo	10	5	2	3	11	7	17
4	Portuguesa	10	4	5	1	13	10	17
5	Deportivo La Guaira	10	5	1	4	19	12	16
6	Academia Puerto Cabello	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
8	UCV	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	Monagas	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
10	Caracas	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	Trujillanos	10	3	1	6	11	17	10
13	Zamora	10	2	2	6	9	18	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	10	1	1	8	5	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello	Portuguesa
Deportivo Tachira	1-1 D	0-1 L
Carabobo	0-2 L	1-0 W
Academia Anzoategui FC	3-0 W	4-3 W
Estudiantes Merida	1-1 D	2-1 W
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	2-0 W	1-1 D
Zamora	1-0 W	1-1 D
Caracas	3-1 W	1-1 D
Metropolitanos FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Puerto Cabello

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
08/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
01/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
22/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
09/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
07/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
03/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	1-2	4	3	L

Portuguesa

WLWWDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	1	10	W
13/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
06/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
31/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	7	9	W
05/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
31/07	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello win (57%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello 57%, draw 27%, Portuguesa 17%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello 1.5 · Portuguesa 0.68), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.