Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 20/09, 01:00

Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira vs Deportivo Tachira

Team pages: Deportivo La Guaira · Deportivo Tachira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Deportivo La Guaira1.64

Deportivo Tachira1.43

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Deportivo La Guaira Draw Deportivo Tachira

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo La Guaira 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDWLL

Deportivo Tachira 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo La Guaira 3–1–2 Deportivo Tachira (6 last)

Deportivo Tachira2-3Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira3-1Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira1-1Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo Tachira2-1Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo Tachira1-0Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira1-0Deportivo Tachira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo La Guaira 1518 · Deportivo Tachira 1543

	Deportivo La Guaira	Draw	Deportivo Tachira
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	39%	31%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo La Guaira	Deportivo Tachira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.9	2.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.88

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.35
X	3.00 → 2.88▼	Pinn 3.00 ★
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.01

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:26 +15’	2.20	3.00	3.00
23:04 +14’	2.30▲	2.88▼	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +196’	2.33	2.95	2.92
21:30 +108’	2.36▲	3.00▲	2.98▲
01:48 +89’	2.35▼	3.00	3.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo La Guaira 3–1–2 Deportivo Tachira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	2-3 HT 1-1	Deportivo La Guaira
18/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	3-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo Tachira
22/03/25 Venezuela Cup	Deportivo Tachira	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo La Guaira
09/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	2-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo La Guaira
19/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Guaira
21/04/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Tachira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	10	8	1	1	21	8	25
2	Deportivo Tachira	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
3	Carabobo	10	5	2	3	11	7	17
4	Portuguesa	10	4	5	1	13	10	17
5	Deportivo La Guaira	10	5	1	4	19	12	16
6	Academia Puerto Cabello	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
8	UCV	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	Monagas	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
10	Caracas	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	Trujillanos	10	3	1	6	11	17	10
13	Zamora	10	2	2	6	9	18	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	10	1	1	8	5	19	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo La Guaira	Deportivo Tachira
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-1 D	1-1 D
Estudiantes Merida	1-2 L	0-2 L
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	4-1 W	3-1 W
Zamora	6-1 W	5-2 W
Caracas	2-1 W	0-0 D
Metropolitanos FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Monagas	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo La Guaira (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo La Guaira

WLWWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
07/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
31/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	0	12	W
17/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	4-0	6-1	7	4	W
11/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
06/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
01/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	2	W

Deportivo Tachira

WWWWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
06/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
02/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	5-2	2	4	W
30/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
23/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
16/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-2	13	7	W
09/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
05/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/05	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	13	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Guaira vs Deportivo Tachira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo La Guaira win (40%). Probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 40%, draw 29%, Deportivo Tachira 31%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Guaira vs Deportivo Tachira?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Deportivo La Guaira 1.64 · Deportivo Tachira 1.43), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Deportivo Tachira?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.