Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 20/09, 22:00

Prediction: Zamora vs Metropolitanos FC

Team pages: Zamora · Metropolitanos FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Zamora1.09

Metropolitanos FC1.4

1X2

28% 29% 43%

Zamora Draw Metropolitanos FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zamora 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDLDLL

Metropolitanos FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Zamora 2–2–2 Metropolitanos FC (6 last)

Metropolitanos FC0-0Zamora
Zamora1-0Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC0-0Zamora
Metropolitanos FC0-1Zamora
Zamora0-1Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC3-1Zamora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zamora 1466 · Metropolitanos FC 1589

	Zamora	Draw	Metropolitanos FC
Our model	28%	29%	43%
Market	28%	29%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metropolitanos FC (rating 1466 vs 1589).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zamora	Metropolitanos FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +15’	3.20	3.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:51 +21’	3.16	3.06	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zamora 2–2–2 Metropolitanos FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Metropolitanos FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Zamora
17/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Zamora	1-0 HT 1-0	Metropolitanos FC
10/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Metropolitanos FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Zamora
15/01/25 America Friendlies	Metropolitanos FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Zamora
07/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Zamora	0-1 HT 0-1	Metropolitanos FC
17/02/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Metropolitanos FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Zamora

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	10	8	1	1	21	8	25
2	Deportivo Tachira	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
3	Carabobo	10	5	2	3	11	7	17
4	Portuguesa	10	4	5	1	13	10	17
5	Deportivo La Guaira	10	5	1	4	19	12	16
6	Academia Puerto Cabello	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
8	UCV	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	Monagas	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
10	Caracas	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	Trujillanos	10	3	1	6	11	17	10
13	Zamora	10	2	2	6	9	18	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	10	1	1	8	5	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zamora	Metropolitanos FC
Monagas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Trujillanos	1-2 L	4-1 W
Portuguesa	1-1 D	2-2 D
Deportivo Tachira	2-5 L	3-1 W
Carabobo	0-0 D	0-1 L
UCV	2-0 W	2-1 W
Deportivo La Guaira	1-6 L	2-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Metropolitanos FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zamora

WLLLWDLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
06/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
02/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-5	3	4	L
31/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
22/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
17/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-4	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
06/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
02/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	9	1	W

Metropolitanos FC

WWWLWDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
12/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
06/09	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
04/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	4-1	4	2	W
31/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
23/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	4	W
17/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
10/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
03/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zamora vs Metropolitanos FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Metropolitanos FC win (43%). Probabilities: Zamora 28%, draw 29%, Metropolitanos FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Zamora vs Metropolitanos FC?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Zamora 1.09 · Metropolitanos FC 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zamora vs Metropolitanos FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.