Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 19/09, 22:00
Prediction: UCV vs Carabobo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
UCV0.88
Carabobo1.19
1X2
UCV
Draw
Carabobo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
UCV
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Carabobo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UCV
1–3–2
Carabobo
(6 last)
- Carabobo4-2UCV
- Carabobo0-2UCV
- UCV1-1Carabobo
- Carabobo0-0UCV
- UCV0-0Carabobo
- Carabobo4-1UCV
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UCV 1510 · Carabobo 1533
| UCV | Draw | Carabobo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 32% | 42% |
| Market | 28% | 29% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Carabobo: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UCV | Carabobo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 2.8 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.4 | 5.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UCV 1–3–2 Carabobo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 4-2 HT 2-2 | UCV |
| 06/12/25 Venezuelan Finals | Carabobo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 30/11/25 Venezuelan Finals | UCV | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Carabobo |
| 09/10/25 Venezuela Cup | Carabobo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 02/10/25 Venezuela Cup | UCV | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Carabobo |
| 24/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 4-1 HT 1-1 | UCV |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Carabobo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Guaira | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 16 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Merida | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 15 |
| 8 | UCV | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 9 | Monagas | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 10 | Caracas | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| 11 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 10 |
| 12 | Trujillanos | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 10 |
| 13 | Zamora | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 8 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UCV | Carabobo |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Estudiantes Merida | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Zamora | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Caracas | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Metropolitanos FC | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Monagas | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Trujillanos | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Carabobo (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UCV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 08/09 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 22/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Carabobo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 08/09 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 17/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 04/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UCV vs Carabobo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Carabobo win (43%). Probabilities: UCV 27%, draw 30%, Carabobo 43%.
How many goals are expected in UCV vs Carabobo?
The model expects 2.07 goals (UCV 0.88 · Carabobo 1.19), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in UCV vs Carabobo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.