Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 20/09, 23:00

Prediction: Estudiantes Merida vs Trujillanos

Team pages: Estudiantes Merida · Trujillanos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Estudiantes Merida1.68

Trujillanos0.78

1X2

58% 26% 16%

Estudiantes Merida Draw Trujillanos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Estudiantes Merida 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWDLWL

Trujillanos 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWLLWL

Head-to-head

Estudiantes Merida 4–1–1 Trujillanos (6 last)

Trujillanos0-2Estudiantes Merida
Trujillanos1-1Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida4-2Trujillanos
Trujillanos0-7Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida4-0Trujillanos
Estudiantes Merida1-2Trujillanos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estudiantes Merida 1518 · Trujillanos 1444

	Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Trujillanos
Our model	58%	26%	16%
Market	58%	26%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estudiantes Merida (rating 1518 vs 1444).
H2H favours Estudiantes Merida: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estudiantes Merida	Trujillanos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.55▼	Pinn 1.56
X	3.25 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.72 ★
2	4.33 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:27 +9’	1.73	3.25	4.33
11:22 +2’	1.55▼	3.50▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +56’	1.59	3.66	5.30
10:01 +83’	1.56▼	3.72▲	5.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes Merida 4–1–1 Trujillanos

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	0-2 HT 0-1	Estudiantes Merida
11/09/21 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	1-1 HT 1-1	Estudiantes Merida
23/07/21 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	4-2 HT 3-1	Trujillanos
04/06/21 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	0-7 HT 0-4	Estudiantes Merida
17/04/21 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	4-0 HT 1-0	Trujillanos
18/11/20 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	1-2 HT 1-0	Trujillanos

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	10	8	1	1	21	8	25
2	Deportivo Tachira	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
3	Carabobo	10	5	2	3	11	7	17
4	Portuguesa	10	4	5	1	13	10	17
5	Deportivo La Guaira	10	5	1	4	19	12	16
6	Academia Puerto Cabello	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
8	UCV	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	Monagas	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
10	Caracas	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	Trujillanos	10	3	1	6	11	17	10
13	Zamora	10	2	2	6	9	18	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	10	1	1	8	5	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estudiantes Merida	Trujillanos
Portuguesa	1-2 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Tachira	2-0 W	1-3 L
Carabobo	0-1 L	0-2 L
UCV	1-1 D	2-0 W
Academia Anzoategui FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	0-3 L	2-4 L
Zamora	1-0 W	2-1 W
Caracas	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Estudiantes Merida (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estudiantes Merida

DWLWDWDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	1-2	6	10	L
12/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
08/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
04/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
31/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
15/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
10/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-3	6	9	L
06/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	6	3	D

Trujillanos

WLLLDWLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-3	2-4	6	5	L
13/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
06/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
04/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-4	7	2	L
30/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
21/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
16/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
09/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
04/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estudiantes Merida vs Trujillanos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes Merida win (58%). Probabilities: Estudiantes Merida 58%, draw 26%, Trujillanos 16%.

How many goals are expected in Estudiantes Merida vs Trujillanos?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Estudiantes Merida 1.68 · Trujillanos 0.78), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estudiantes Merida vs Trujillanos?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.