Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 19/09, 12:30

Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Mindil Aces

Team pages: University Azzurri FC · Mindil Aces

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

University Azzurri FC2.5

Mindil Aces1.8

1X2

53% 20% 27%

University Azzurri FC Draw Mindil Aces

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

University Azzurri FC 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWW

Mindil Aces 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

University Azzurri FC 4–2–0 Mindil Aces (6 last)

Mindil Aces1-1University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC3-2Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces0-2University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC2-1Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces1-1University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC2-0Mindil Aces

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1623 · Mindil Aces 1554

	University Azzurri FC	Draw	Mindil Aces
Our model	53%	20%	27%
Market	53%	20%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1623 vs 1554).
H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 4-2-0.
High corners: 15.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	University Azzurri FC	Mindil Aces
Goals for / against (FT)	4.8 / 0.8	3.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.1	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7.3	3 / 8.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 1.7 · xG: 5.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.60 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:52 +11’	1.61	4.50	3.60
13:34 +4’	1.70▲	4.50	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 4–2–0 Mindil Aces

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC
19/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
23/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-2 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC
13/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
16/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC
07/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Mindil Aces

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	24	16	2	6	85	29	50
3	Darwin Olympic	24	14	4	6	74	41	46
4	Port Darwin FC	24	13	1	10	75	68	40
5	Darwin Hearts	24	10	3	11	59	61	33
6	Hellenic AC	24	7	4	13	39	59	25
7	Casuarina FC	24	6	4	14	47	65	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	24	6	2	16	43	101	20
9	Garuda FC	24	2	4	18	27	108	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	University Azzurri FC	Mindil Aces
Port Darwin FC	6-0 W	4-2 W
Garuda FC	7-0 W	11-0 W
Darwin Hearts	3-1 W	4-2 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	10-2 W	5-0 W
Darwin Olympic	4-2 W	2-5 L
Hellenic AC	3-0 W	4-1 W
Casuarina FC	5-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

University Azzurri FC

WWWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	6-0	7	1	W
30/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	7-0	8	1	W
27/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
22/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
19/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
16/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-0	10-2	8	2	W
08/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	3	3	W
01/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
25/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-1	10	2	W
03/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	0	W

Mindil Aces

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-3	2-5	5	2	L
06/09	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	4-2	7	2	W
30/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	10	3	W
27/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
22/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-0	12	0	W
18/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
14/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-2	9	1	W
01/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	11-0	10	0	W
26/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
19/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Mindil Aces?

According to our model, the most likely result is a University Azzurri FC win (53%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 53%, draw 20%, Mindil Aces 27%.

How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Mindil Aces?

The model expects 4.3 goals (University Azzurri FC 2.5 · Mindil Aces 1.8), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Mindil Aces?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.