Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 26/09, 10:30

Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic

Team pages: University Azzurri FC · Darwin Olympic

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

University Azzurri FC2.59

Darwin Olympic1.52

1X2

61% 18% 22%

University Azzurri FC Draw Darwin Olympic

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

University Azzurri FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWL

Darwin Olympic 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

University Azzurri FC 4–2 Darwin Olympic (6 last)

University Azzurri FC4-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic0-3University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC1-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic0-3University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC1-0Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic2-0University Azzurri FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1600 · Darwin Olympic 1581

	University Azzurri FC	Draw	Darwin Olympic
Our model	60%	19%	21%
Market	61%	16%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	University Azzurri FC	Darwin Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	4.8 / 1.2	2.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.3	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	90/0/10%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 8	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X5.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.45▼	Bet365 1.45
X	5.00 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:23 +11’	1.50	5.00	4.00
06:34 +15’	1.53▲	5.00	3.90▼
08:16 +1’	1.45▼	5.50▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 4–0–2 Darwin Olympic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	4-2 HT 2-1	Darwin Olympic
30/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	0-3 HT 0-2	University Azzurri FC
28/03/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Darwin Olympic
27/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	0-3 HT 0-2	University Azzurri FC
05/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Darwin Olympic
27/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-0 HT 1-0	University Azzurri FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	24	16	2	6	85	29	50
3	Darwin Olympic	24	14	4	6	74	41	46
4	Port Darwin FC	24	13	1	10	75	68	40
5	Darwin Hearts	24	10	3	11	59	61	33
6	Hellenic AC	24	7	4	13	39	59	25
7	Casuarina FC	24	6	4	14	47	65	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	24	6	2	16	43	101	20
9	Garuda FC	24	2	4	18	27	108	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	University Azzurri FC	Darwin Olympic
Mindil Aces	2-4 L	5-2 W
Port Darwin FC	6-0 W	2-1 W
Garuda FC	7-0 W	2-0 W
Darwin Hearts	3-1 W	3-1 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	10-2 W	5-2 W
Hellenic AC	3-0 W	3-0 W
Casuarina FC	5-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

University Azzurri FC

WWWWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-4	14	8	L
05/09	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	6-0	7	1	W
30/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	7-0	8	1	W
27/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
22/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
19/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
16/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-0	10-2	8	2	W
08/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	3	3	W
01/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
25/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-1	10	2	W

Darwin Olympic

WDLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	0	W
12/09	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	3-2	5-2	11	2	W
05/09	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	5-2	7	1	W
29/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
21/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
18/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
25/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a University Azzurri FC win (61%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 61%, draw 18%, Darwin Olympic 22%.

How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic?

The model expects 4.11 goals (University Azzurri FC 2.59 · Darwin Olympic 1.52), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.