Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 11/09, 11:00

Prediction: Palmerston Rovers FC vs Hellenic AC

Team pages: Palmerston Rovers FC · Hellenic AC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.27Total

Palmerston Rovers FC1.81

Hellenic AC2.46

1X2

28% 20% 52%

Palmerston Rovers FC Draw Hellenic AC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Palmerston Rovers FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWDL

Hellenic AC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Palmerston Rovers FC 1–1–1 Hellenic AC (3 last)

Hellenic AC2-1Palmerston Rovers FC
Palmerston Rovers FC1-0Hellenic AC
Hellenic AC2-2Palmerston Rovers FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmerston Rovers FC 1443 · Hellenic AC 1487

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Draw	Hellenic AC
Our model	28%	20%	52%
Market	28%	20%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 4.27 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hellenic AC (rating 1443 vs 1487).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Hellenic AC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 4.2	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 2.1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.3	1.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 1 · xG: 5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.67 → 1.73▲	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +8’	3.40	4.50	1.67
21:43 +7’	3.20▼	4.50	1.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmerston Rovers FC 1–1–1 Hellenic AC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	2-1 HT 1-0	Palmerston Rovers FC
09/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Palmerston Rovers FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Hellenic AC
25/03/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Hellenic AC	2-2 HT 1-1	Palmerston Rovers FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	23	16	2	5	83	24	50
3	Darwin Olympic	23	13	4	6	69	39	43
4	Port Darwin FC	23	12	1	10	70	64	37
5	Darwin Hearts	23	10	3	10	56	57	33
6	Casuarina FC	23	6	4	13	43	60	22
7	Hellenic AC	23	6	4	13	36	59	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	23	6	2	15	43	98	20
9	Garuda FC	23	1	4	18	23	105	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmerston Rovers FC	Hellenic AC
Darwin Olympic	2-5 L	0-3 L
Casuarina FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Port Darwin FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Mindil Aces	0-5 L	1-4 L
University Azzurri FC	2-10 L	0-3 L
Darwin Hearts	3-8 L	6-1 W
Garuda FC	7-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hellenic AC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmerston Rovers FC

DLLWLLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-5	2	1	L
29/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
26/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-5	4	0	L
16/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-5	2-10	4	2	L
09/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-5	3-8	2	3	L
26/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	7-0	2	0	W
23/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	1	L
17/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-6	1-7	1	5	L
02/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	9	2	D

Hellenic AC

LLWLLWLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	6-1	5	0	W
27/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-2	1	1	D
22/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
15/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-3	2	3	L
07/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
01/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
26/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-4	0	0	L
23/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
18/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
03/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Hellenic AC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hellenic AC win (52%). Probabilities: Palmerston Rovers FC 28%, draw 20%, Hellenic AC 52%.

How many goals are expected in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Hellenic AC?

The model expects 4.27 goals (Palmerston Rovers FC 1.81 · Hellenic AC 2.46), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Hellenic AC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.