Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 19/09, 10:30

Prediction: Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC

Team pages: Darwin Olympic · Port Darwin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.51Total

Darwin Olympic3

Port Darwin FC1.51

1X2

67% 17% 16%

Darwin Olympic Draw Port Darwin FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Olympic 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWWWW

Port Darwin FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Darwin Olympic 2–4 Port Darwin FC (6 last)

Darwin Olympic1-0Port Darwin FC
Darwin Olympic3-4Port Darwin FC
Port Darwin FC6-1Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic2-4Port Darwin FC
Port Darwin FC1-3Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic2-4Port Darwin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Olympic 1573 · Port Darwin FC 1487

	Darwin Olympic	Draw	Port Darwin FC
Our model	67%	17%	16%
Market	67%	17%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.51 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Olympic (rating 1573 vs 1487).
H2H favours Port Darwin FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Olympic	Port Darwin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.2	2.2 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	2.1 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.25

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.52.00

Under 4.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	4.50 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:52 +10’	1.44	5.00	4.50
19:22 +5’	1.33▼	5.25▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Olympic 2–0–4 Port Darwin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	1-0 HT 0-0	Port Darwin FC
02/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	3-4 HT 1-2	Port Darwin FC
16/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	6-1 HT 2-1	Darwin Olympic
02/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Darwin Olympic	2-4 HT 1-2	Port Darwin FC
26/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	1-3 HT 1-2	Darwin Olympic
24/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-4 HT 2-3	Port Darwin FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	24	16	2	6	85	29	50
3	Darwin Olympic	24	14	4	6	74	41	46
4	Port Darwin FC	24	13	1	10	75	68	40
5	Darwin Hearts	24	10	3	11	59	61	33
6	Hellenic AC	24	7	4	13	39	59	25
7	Casuarina FC	24	6	4	14	47	65	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	24	6	2	16	43	101	20
9	Garuda FC	24	2	4	18	27	108	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Olympic	Port Darwin FC
Mindil Aces	5-2 W	2-4 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	5-2 W	1-2 L
Darwin Hearts	3-1 W	4-4 D
Garuda FC	2-0 W	4-1 W
Hellenic AC	3-0 W	0-2 L
University Azzurri FC	2-4 L	0-6 L
Casuarina FC	2-2 D	5-4 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Olympic (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Olympic

WWDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	3-2	5-2	11	2	W
05/09	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	5-2	7	1	W
29/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
21/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
18/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
25/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-1	7-1	11	5	W

Port Darwin FC

LDWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-2	5-4	6	1	W
05/09	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-6	1	1	L
02/09	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	5-2	5	2	W
30/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	9	3	L
26/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
19/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-7	5	2	L
09/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-1	7	4	W
31/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-4	3	6	D
25/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darwin Olympic win (67%). Probabilities: Darwin Olympic 67%, draw 17%, Port Darwin FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC?

The model expects 4.51 goals (Darwin Olympic 3 · Port Darwin FC 1.51), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.