Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 11/09, 13:00

Prediction: Casuarina FC vs Port Darwin FC

Team pages: Casuarina FC · Port Darwin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

Casuarina FC1.97

Port Darwin FC2.44

1X2

31% 20% 49%

Casuarina FC Draw Port Darwin FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Casuarina FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWDLL

Port Darwin FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Casuarina FC 1–5 Port Darwin FC (6 last)

Port Darwin FC5-2Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC1-5Port Darwin FC
Port Darwin FC4-0Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC1-4Port Darwin FC
Casuarina FC3-1Port Darwin FC
Port Darwin FC4-2Casuarina FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casuarina FC 1406 · Port Darwin FC 1475

	Casuarina FC	Draw	Port Darwin FC
Our model	31%	20%	48%
Market	31%	20%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Darwin FC (rating 1406 vs 1475).
H2H favours Port Darwin FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casuarina FC	Port Darwin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3	2.1 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.83 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:08 +5’	2.90	4.50	1.83
08:17 +8’	2.88▼	4.50	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casuarina FC 1–0–5 Port Darwin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	5-2 HT 3-1	Casuarina FC
08/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	1-5 HT 1-3	Port Darwin FC
07/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Port Darwin FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Casuarina FC
05/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	1-4 HT 1-3	Port Darwin FC
12/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Port Darwin FC
28/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	4-2 HT 3-1	Casuarina FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	23	16	2	5	83	24	50
3	Darwin Olympic	23	13	4	6	69	39	43
4	Port Darwin FC	23	12	1	10	70	64	37
5	Darwin Hearts	23	10	3	10	56	57	33
6	Casuarina FC	23	6	4	13	43	60	22
7	Hellenic AC	23	6	4	13	36	59	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	23	6	2	15	43	98	20
9	Garuda FC	23	1	4	18	23	105	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casuarina FC	Port Darwin FC
Mindil Aces	2-4 L	2-4 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Darwin Hearts	3-2 W	4-4 D
Garuda FC	2-3 L	4-1 W
Hellenic AC	0-2 L	0-2 L
Darwin Olympic	2-2 D	0-1 L
University Azzurri FC	1-5 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Casuarina FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casuarina FC

LLLDLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-4	2	2	L
02/09	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	2-5	2	2	L
29/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
26/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-3	2	2	L
07/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	6	2	D
25/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
19/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
03/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	0	L

Port Darwin FC

WLDWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-6	1	1	L
02/09	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	5-2	5	2	W
30/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	9	3	L
26/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
19/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-7	5	2	L
09/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-1	7	4	W
31/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-4	3	6	D
25/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
02/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-3	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casuarina FC vs Port Darwin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Port Darwin FC win (49%). Probabilities: Casuarina FC 31%, draw 20%, Port Darwin FC 49%.

How many goals are expected in Casuarina FC vs Port Darwin FC?

The model expects 4.41 goals (Casuarina FC 1.97 · Port Darwin FC 2.44), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casuarina FC vs Port Darwin FC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.