Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 12/09, 12:30

Prediction: Darwin Olympic vs Mindil Aces

Team pages: Darwin Olympic · Mindil Aces

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Darwin Olympic1.65

Mindil Aces2.38

1X2

26% 20% 54%

Darwin Olympic Draw Mindil Aces

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Olympic 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWWWW

Mindil Aces 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Darwin Olympic 2–4–0 Mindil Aces (6 last)

Mindil Aces0-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic1-1Mindil Aces
Darwin Olympic2-2Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces0-0Darwin Olympic
Mindil Aces1-1Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic3-2Mindil Aces

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Olympic 1571 · Mindil Aces 1595

	Darwin Olympic	Draw	Mindil Aces
Our model	26%	21%	53%
Market	26%	20%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Darwin Olympic: 2-4-0.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Olympic	Mindil Aces
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.4	3.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	3.5 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.50

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:29 +6’	3.40	4.50	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Olympic 2–4–0 Mindil Aces

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/08/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-2 HT 0-1	Darwin Olympic
09/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	1-1 HT 0-1	Mindil Aces
08/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
30/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-0 HT 0-0	Darwin Olympic
20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 1-0	Darwin Olympic
28/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	3-2 HT 0-2	Mindil Aces

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	23	16	2	5	83	24	50
3	Darwin Olympic	23	13	4	6	69	39	43
4	Port Darwin FC	23	12	1	10	70	64	37
5	Darwin Hearts	23	10	3	10	56	57	33
6	Casuarina FC	23	6	4	13	43	60	22
7	Hellenic AC	23	6	4	13	36	59	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	23	6	2	15	43	98	20
9	Garuda FC	23	1	4	18	23	105	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Olympic	Mindil Aces
Palmerston Rovers FC	5-2 W	5-0 W
Darwin Hearts	3-1 W	4-2 W
Garuda FC	2-0 W	11-0 W
Hellenic AC	3-0 W	4-1 W
University Azzurri FC	2-4 L	1-1 D
Casuarina FC	2-2 D	4-2 W
Port Darwin FC	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Olympic

LWWDLWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	5-2	7	1	W
29/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
21/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
18/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
25/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-1	7-1	11	5	W
02/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	3-4	5	5	L

Mindil Aces

WWWWWLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	4-2	7	2	W
30/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	10	3	W
27/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
22/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-0	12	0	W
18/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
14/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-2	9	1	W
01/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	11-0	10	0	W
26/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
19/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
03/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-1	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Olympic vs Mindil Aces?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mindil Aces win (54%). Probabilities: Darwin Olympic 26%, draw 20%, Mindil Aces 54%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Olympic vs Mindil Aces?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Darwin Olympic 1.65 · Mindil Aces 2.38), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Olympic vs Mindil Aces?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.