Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 12/09, 10:30

Prediction: Darwin Hearts vs Garuda FC

Team pages: Darwin Hearts · Garuda FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.64Total

Darwin Hearts3.32

Garuda FC1.32

1X2

76% 13% 11%

Darwin Hearts Draw Garuda FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Hearts 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLLLL

Garuda FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Darwin Hearts 2–1–3 Garuda FC (6 last)

Garuda FC2-3Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-1Garuda FC
Garuda FC0-3Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts0-2Garuda FC
Garuda FC3-1Darwin Hearts
Garuda FC2-0Darwin Hearts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Hearts 1471 · Garuda FC 1414

	Darwin Hearts	Draw	Garuda FC
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	76%	13%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.64 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Hearts (rating 1471 vs 1414).
H2H favours Garuda FC: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Hearts	Garuda FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 3.1	1 / 5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1.2	0.1 / 2.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	0.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X7.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.98

Under 4.751.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 5.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:28 +7’	1.18	7.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 2–1–3 Garuda FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	2-3 HT 0-1	Darwin Hearts
10/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-1 HT 1-1	Garuda FC
25/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Darwin Hearts
23/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	0-2 HT 0-1	Garuda FC
21/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	3-1 HT 0-0	Darwin Hearts
26/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Darwin Hearts

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	23	16	2	5	83	24	50
3	Darwin Olympic	23	13	4	6	69	39	43
4	Port Darwin FC	23	12	1	10	70	64	37
5	Darwin Hearts	23	10	3	10	56	57	33
6	Casuarina FC	23	6	4	13	43	60	22
7	Hellenic AC	23	6	4	13	36	59	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	23	6	2	15	43	98	20
9	Garuda FC	23	1	4	18	23	105	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Hearts	Garuda FC
Hellenic AC	1-6 L	2-2 D
Darwin Olympic	1-3 L	0-2 L
Casuarina FC	2-3 L	3-2 W
University Azzurri FC	1-3 L	0-7 L
Mindil Aces	2-4 L	0-11 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	8-3 W	0-7 L
Port Darwin FC	4-4 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Hearts (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Hearts

WWWDWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	1-6	4	0	L
29/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	1-3	8	0	L
26/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
22/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-3	0	2	L
14/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-4	2	1	L
09/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	8-3	8	3	W
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W

Garuda FC

LDLLLLWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-7	1	1	L
27/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
21/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
15/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	3-2	5	2	W
09/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	1-4	3	4	L
01/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-11	1	0	L
26/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-7	4	0	L
23/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	2-3	5	0	L
02/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	5	2	D
26/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-10	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Hearts vs Garuda FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darwin Hearts win (76%). Probabilities: Darwin Hearts 76%, draw 13%, Garuda FC 11%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Hearts vs Garuda FC?

The model expects 4.64 goals (Darwin Hearts 3.32 · Garuda FC 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Hearts vs Garuda FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.