Football · Jamaica Premier League · 18/10, 22:00
Prediction: Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden FC
Team pages: Tivoli Gardens · Dunbeholden FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Tivoli Gardens1.69
Dunbeholden FC1.02
1X2
Tivoli Gardens
Draw
Dunbeholden FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Tivoli Gardens
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Dunbeholden FC
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tivoli Gardens
4–2
Dunbeholden FC
(6 last)
- Tivoli Gardens2-0Dunbeholden FC
- Tivoli Gardens2-1Dunbeholden FC
- Dunbeholden FC1-0Tivoli Gardens
- Dunbeholden FC2-4Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens2-0Dunbeholden FC
- Dunbeholden FC2-1Tivoli Gardens
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tivoli Gardens 1479 · Dunbeholden FC 1429
| Tivoli Gardens | Draw | Dunbeholden FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tivoli Gardens (rating 1479 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Tivoli Gardens: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tivoli Gardens | Dunbeholden FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tivoli Gardens 4–0–2 Dunbeholden FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dunbeholden FC |
| 08/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Dunbeholden FC |
| 21/12/25 Jamaica Premier League | Dunbeholden FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 19/03/25 Jamaica Premier League | Dunbeholden FC | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 19/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dunbeholden FC |
| 21/11/24 Jamaica Premier League | Dunbeholden FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay Utd | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Racing United FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 5 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | Mount Pleasant FA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 12 | Molynes United FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tivoli Gardens | Dunbeholden FC |
|---|---|---|
| Treasure Beach FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Cavalier | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Molynes United FC | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Montego Bay Utd | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Dunbeholden FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 04/10 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/04 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Dunbeholden FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/09 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 22/09 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tivoli Gardens win (52%). Probabilities: Tivoli Gardens 52%, draw 26%, Dunbeholden FC 22%.
How many goals are expected in Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden FC?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Tivoli Gardens 1.69 · Dunbeholden FC 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.