Football · Jamaica Premier League · 25/10, 21:00
Prediction: Cavalier vs Tivoli Gardens
Team pages: Cavalier · Tivoli Gardens
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Cavalier1.53
Tivoli Gardens1.19
1X2
Cavalier
Draw
Tivoli Gardens
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cavalier
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Tivoli Gardens
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cavalier
2–3–1
Tivoli Gardens
(6 last)
- Tivoli Gardens0-2Cavalier
- Cavalier1-2Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens0-2Cavalier
- Tivoli Gardens1-1Cavalier
- Cavalier0-0Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens1-1Cavalier
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cavalier 1489 · Tivoli Gardens 1493
| Cavalier | Draw | Tivoli Gardens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cavalier: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cavalier | Tivoli Gardens | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalier 2–3–1 Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cavalier |
| 25/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 05/10/25 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cavalier |
| 03/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cavalier |
| 30/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 03/11/24 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cavalier |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay Utd | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant FA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cavalier | Tivoli Gardens |
|---|---|---|
| Molynes United FC | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Montego Bay Utd | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Portmore United | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cavalier (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cavalier
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/10 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/10 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 04/10 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/04 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cavalier vs Tivoli Gardens?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavalier win (44%). Probabilities: Cavalier 44%, draw 27%, Tivoli Gardens 29%.
How many goals are expected in Cavalier vs Tivoli Gardens?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Cavalier 1.53 · Tivoli Gardens 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cavalier vs Tivoli Gardens?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.