Football · Jamaica Premier League · 27/10, 02:00

Prediction: Mount Pleasant FA vs Montego Bay Utd

Team pages: Mount Pleasant FA · Montego Bay Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Mount Pleasant FA1.48

Montego Bay Utd1.27

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Mount Pleasant FA Draw Montego Bay Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mount Pleasant FA 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLLWD

Montego Bay Utd 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWWD

Head-to-head

Mount Pleasant FA 4–2–0 Montego Bay Utd (6 last)

Montego Bay Utd2-3Mount Pleasant FA
Mount Pleasant FA2-1Montego Bay Utd
Montego Bay Utd0-1Mount Pleasant FA
Mount Pleasant FA2-2Montego Bay Utd
Mount Pleasant FA1-1Montego Bay Utd
Montego Bay Utd0-1Mount Pleasant FA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mount Pleasant FA 1570 · Montego Bay Utd 1527

	Mount Pleasant FA	Draw	Montego Bay Utd
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mount Pleasant FA (rating 1570 vs 1527).
H2H favours Mount Pleasant FA: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mount Pleasant FA	Montego Bay Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +2’	2.20	3.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mount Pleasant FA 4–2–0 Montego Bay Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Jamaica Premier League	Montego Bay Utd	2-3 HT 0-1	Mount Pleasant FA
06/05/26 Jamaica Premier League	Mount Pleasant FA	2-1 HT 2-1	Montego Bay Utd
28/12/25 Jamaica Premier League	Montego Bay Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Mount Pleasant FA
24/08/25 Jamaica Premier League	Mount Pleasant FA	2-2 HT 1-0	Montego Bay Utd
19/05/25 Jamaica Premier League	Mount Pleasant FA	1-1 HT 1-0	Montego Bay Utd
16/05/25 Jamaica Premier League	Montego Bay Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Mount Pleasant FA

Standings · Jamaica Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montego Bay Utd	6	4	2	0	9	3	14
2	Racing United FC	6	4	1	1	14	6	13
3	Waterhouse	6	3	3	0	15	2	12
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
5	Tru-Juice FC	6	3	2	1	10	3	11
6	Chapelton Maroons FC	6	2	2	2	4	10	8
7	Cavalier	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
8	Molynes United FC	6	2	0	4	5	12	6
9	Portmore United	3	1	2	0	6	3	5
10	Arnett Gardens	5	1	2	2	10	9	5
11	Mount Pleasant FA	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
12	Dunbeholden FC	6	1	0	5	2	11	3
13	Treasure Beach FC	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
14	Humble Lions	6	0	2	4	2	17	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mount Pleasant FA	Montego Bay Utd
Cavalier	1-1 D	3-1 W
Dunbeholden FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Racing United FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tru-Juice FC	0-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Montego Bay Utd (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mount Pleasant FA

WWWWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
27/09	Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
20/09	Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
13/09	Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
25/05	Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
21/05	Portmore United Jamaica Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
18/05	Portmore United Jamaica Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
06/05	Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
03/05	Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
28/04	Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	7	W

Montego Bay Utd

LWLLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
11/10	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	2-0	3-1	11	3	W
04/10	Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/09	Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
13/09	Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
25/05	Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League	0-1	2-3	4	3	L
21/05	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-1	18	4	L
18/05	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
06/05	Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League	1-2	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mount Pleasant FA vs Montego Bay Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mount Pleasant FA win (41%). Probabilities: Mount Pleasant FA 41%, draw 28%, Montego Bay Utd 31%.

How many goals are expected in Mount Pleasant FA vs Montego Bay Utd?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Mount Pleasant FA 1.48 · Montego Bay Utd 1.27), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mount Pleasant FA vs Montego Bay Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.