Football · Jamaica Premier League · 18/10, 22:00
Prediction: Montego Bay Utd vs Arnett Gardens
Team pages: Montego Bay Utd · Arnett Gardens
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Montego Bay Utd1.86
Arnett Gardens0.99
1X2
Montego Bay Utd
Draw
Arnett Gardens
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Montego Bay Utd
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Arnett Gardens
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montego Bay Utd
1–2–3
Arnett Gardens
(6 last)
- Arnett Gardens1-0Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd1-1Arnett Gardens
- Arnett Gardens0-1Montego Bay Utd
- Arnett Gardens4-2Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd2-2Arnett Gardens
- Arnett Gardens1-0Montego Bay Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montego Bay Utd 1537 · Arnett Gardens 1529
| Montego Bay Utd | Draw | Arnett Gardens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Arnett Gardens: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montego Bay Utd | Arnett Gardens | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 70/0/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.5 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montego Bay Utd 1–2–3 Arnett Gardens
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 01/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Arnett Gardens |
| 16/12/25 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 23/05/25 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 4-2 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 18/03/25 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Arnett Gardens |
| 14/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay Utd | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Racing United FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 5 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | Mount Pleasant FA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 12 | Molynes United FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montego Bay Utd | Arnett Gardens |
|---|---|---|
| Cavalier | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Racing United FC | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Chapelton Maroons FC | 2-0 W | 7-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montego Bay Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 18 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
Arnett Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/09 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 22/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 7-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 24/04 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/04 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montego Bay Utd vs Arnett Gardens?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montego Bay Utd win (57%). Probabilities: Montego Bay Utd 57%, draw 23%, Arnett Gardens 19%.
How many goals are expected in Montego Bay Utd vs Arnett Gardens?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Montego Bay Utd 1.86 · Arnett Gardens 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Montego Bay Utd vs Arnett Gardens?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.