Football · Jamaica Premier League · 01/11, 21:00
Prediction: Tivoli Gardens vs Arnett Gardens
Team pages: Tivoli Gardens · Arnett Gardens
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.27Total
Tivoli Gardens1.52
Arnett Gardens1.76
1X2
Tivoli Gardens
Draw
Arnett Gardens
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Tivoli Gardens
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Arnett Gardens
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tivoli Gardens
1–1–4
Arnett Gardens
(6 last)
- Tivoli Gardens0-2Arnett Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens0-2Arnett Gardens
- Arnett Gardens1-2Tivoli Gardens
- Arnett Gardens0-0Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens3-5Arnett Gardens
- Arnett Gardens2-1Tivoli Gardens
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tivoli Gardens 1458 · Arnett Gardens 1570
| Tivoli Gardens | Draw | Arnett Gardens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arnett Gardens (rating 1458 vs 1570).
- H2H favours Arnett Gardens: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tivoli Gardens | Arnett Gardens | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 3.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 2.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 70/0/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 2.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tivoli Gardens 1–1–4 Arnett Gardens
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Arnett Gardens |
| 08/02/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Arnett Gardens |
| 21/10/25 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 08/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 04/02/25 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 3-5 HT 2-1 | Arnett Gardens |
| 12/11/24 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing United FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Waterhouse | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Tru-Juice FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Montego Bay Utd | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 11 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
| 8 | Arnett Gardens | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 8 |
| 9 | Mount Pleasant FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Portmore United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Molynes United FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 6 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tivoli Gardens | Arnett Gardens |
|---|---|---|
| Cavalier | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Racing United FC | 3-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Chapelton Maroons FC | 1-1 D | 7-2 W |
| Portmore United | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Molynes United FC | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arnett Gardens (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/10 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 04/10 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/04 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Arnett Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/10 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/09 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 22/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 7-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 24/04 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tivoli Gardens vs Arnett Gardens?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arnett Gardens win (43%). Probabilities: Tivoli Gardens 33%, draw 25%, Arnett Gardens 43%.
How many goals are expected in Tivoli Gardens vs Arnett Gardens?
The model expects 3.27 goals (Tivoli Gardens 1.52 · Arnett Gardens 1.76), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tivoli Gardens vs Arnett Gardens?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.