Football · Jamaica Premier League · 06/11, 01:00
Prediction: Arnett Gardens vs Mount Pleasant FA
Team pages: Arnett Gardens · Mount Pleasant FA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Arnett Gardens1.08
Mount Pleasant FA1.88
1X2
Arnett Gardens
Draw
Mount Pleasant FA
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Arnett Gardens
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Mount Pleasant FA
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arnett Gardens
0–2–4
Mount Pleasant FA
(6 last)
- Arnett Gardens1-1Mount Pleasant FA
- Mount Pleasant FA1-0Arnett Gardens
- Arnett Gardens0-1Mount Pleasant FA
- Arnett Gardens0-2Mount Pleasant FA
- Mount Pleasant FA2-0Arnett Gardens
- Arnett Gardens1-1Mount Pleasant FA
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arnett Gardens 1528 · Mount Pleasant FA 1576
| Arnett Gardens | Draw | Mount Pleasant FA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mount Pleasant FA (rating 1528 vs 1576).
- H2H favours Mount Pleasant FA: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arnett Gardens | Mount Pleasant FA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 1.4 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arnett Gardens 0–2–4 Mount Pleasant FA
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 29/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Mount Pleasant FA | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arnett Gardens |
| 23/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 18/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 19/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Mount Pleasant FA | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Arnett Gardens |
| 17/10/24 Jamaica Premier League | Arnett Gardens | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Mount Pleasant FA |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterhouse | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing United FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Montego Bay Utd | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | Mount Pleasant FA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Arnett Gardens | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 9 |
| 9 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 9 |
| 10 | Portmore United | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 6 |
| 12 | Molynes United FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 6 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 5 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arnett Gardens | Mount Pleasant FA |
|---|---|---|
| Molynes United FC | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Montego Bay Utd | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Portmore United | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Cavalier | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Dunbeholden FC | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Racing United FC | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arnett Gardens (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arnett Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/10 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/10 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/09 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 22/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 7-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
Mount Pleasant FA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 27/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arnett Gardens vs Mount Pleasant FA?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mount Pleasant FA win (55%). Probabilities: Arnett Gardens 21%, draw 23%, Mount Pleasant FA 55%.
How many goals are expected in Arnett Gardens vs Mount Pleasant FA?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Arnett Gardens 1.08 · Mount Pleasant FA 1.88), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arnett Gardens vs Mount Pleasant FA?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.