Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 16/09, 00:00

Prediction: Carabobo vs Deportivo La Guaira

Team pages: Carabobo · Deportivo La Guaira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Carabobo1.34

Deportivo La Guaira1.13

1X2

40% 30% 30%

Carabobo Draw Deportivo La Guaira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Carabobo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDDLWW

Deportivo La Guaira 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLDWL

Head-to-head

Carabobo 2–4–0 Deportivo La Guaira (6 last)

Deportivo La Guaira1-1Carabobo
Carabobo0-0Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira0-0Carabobo
Carabobo1-1Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira0-1Carabobo
Carabobo3-1Deportivo La Guaira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carabobo 1537 · Deportivo La Guaira 1503

	Carabobo	Draw	Deportivo La Guaira
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carabobo: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carabobo	Deportivo La Guaira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.1	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:57 +5’	2.25	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carabobo 2–4–0 Deportivo La Guaira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-1 HT 1-0	Carabobo
28/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Guaira
18/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	0-0 HT 0-0	Carabobo
10/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo La Guaira
04/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	0-1 HT 0-0	Carabobo
16/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	3-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo La Guaira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	9	7	1	1	18	8	22
2	Deportivo Tachira	9	6	1	2	19	11	19
3	Deportivo La Guaira	9	5	1	3	19	11	16
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
5	Estudiantes Merida	9	4	3	2	10	9	15
6	Carabobo	9	4	2	3	10	7	14
7	Portuguesa	9	3	5	1	11	9	14
8	UCV	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
9	Monagas	9	3	1	5	10	12	10
10	Caracas	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
11	Trujillanos	9	3	1	5	9	13	10
12	Zamora	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
13	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	9	2	1	6	12	20	7
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	9	1	1	7	5	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carabobo	Deportivo La Guaira
Academia Puerto Cabello	2-0 W	1-1 D
Estudiantes Merida	1-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-4 L	4-1 W
Zamora	0-0 D	6-1 W
Caracas	1-1 D	2-1 W
Metropolitanos FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Monagas	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo La Guaira (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carabobo

WLWLWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-4	8	8	L
31/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
17/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
08/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
04/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
31/07	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
08/06	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	7	W

Deportivo La Guaira

LWLWWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
07/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
31/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	0	12	W
17/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	4-0	6-1	7	4	W
11/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
06/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
01/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
31/05	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carabobo vs Deportivo La Guaira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carabobo win (40%). Probabilities: Carabobo 40%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Guaira 30%.

How many goals are expected in Carabobo vs Deportivo La Guaira?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Carabobo 1.34 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carabobo vs Deportivo La Guaira?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.