Football · Bulgaria Second League · 20/09, 19:30

Prediction: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets Burgas

Team pages: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo · Chernomorets Burgas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo1.79

Chernomorets Burgas1.04

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Draw Chernomorets Burgas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLDLWL

Chernomorets Burgas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLWWDW

Head-to-head

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 0–3–2 Chernomorets Burgas (5 last)

Chernomorets Burgas1-1Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo3-3Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas2-0Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Chernomorets Burgas1-0Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Chernomorets Burgas2-2Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1510 · Chernomorets Burgas 1522

	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	Draw	Chernomorets Burgas
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chernomorets Burgas: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	Chernomorets Burgas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +16’	1.65	3.70	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 0–3–2 Chernomorets Burgas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-1 HT 1-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
02/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	3-3 HT 1-1	Chernomorets Burgas
13/10/24 Bulgaria Cup	Chernomorets Burgas	2-0 HT 2-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
24/01/24 Club Friendly List	Chernomorets Burgas	1-0 HT 0-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
18/11/23 Bulgaria Cup	Chernomorets Burgas	2-2 HT 1-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	9	6	3	0	21	8	21
2	CSKA Sofia II	9	5	2	2	19	8	17
3	FK Fratria	9	4	4	1	12	7	16
4	Yantra Gabrovo	9	5	1	3	12	9	16
5	Chernomorets Burgas	9	4	3	2	12	6	15
6	Beroe	9	4	3	2	12	8	15
7	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	9	4	2	3	15	15	14
8	Nesebar	9	4	2	3	16	12	14
9	Marek Dupnitsa	9	4	1	4	10	9	13
10	Ludogorets Razgrad II	9	3	3	3	9	9	12
11	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	9	3	3	3	8	10	12
12	Rilski Sportist	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	9	3	2	4	18	17	11
14	Montana	9	3	2	4	13	16	11
15	Spartak Pleven	9	3	1	5	10	19	10
16	Sportist Svoge	9	1	4	4	4	7	7
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	9	1	3	5	9	14	6
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	9	0	0	9	3	30	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	Chernomorets Burgas
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-4 L	0-1 L
CSKA Sofia II	1-0 W	0-1 L
Vihren Sandanski	1-4 L	1-1 D
Beroe	2-2 D	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chernomorets Burgas (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

LWWWDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
06/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
03/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
29/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-2	2-2	7	8	D
21/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
15/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
07/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
03/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
25/07	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	3-1	5-1	9	5	W
23/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Chernomorets Burgas

LDWDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
07/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
02/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
17/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/07	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
23/05	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets Burgas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo win (54%). Probabilities: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 54%, draw 25%, Chernomorets Burgas 21%.

How many goals are expected in Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1.79 · Chernomorets Burgas 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.