Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 05/10, 00:15
Prediction: Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
Team pages: Boca Juniors · Union Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Boca Juniors1.88
Union Santa Fe0.84
1X2
Boca Juniors
Draw
Union Santa Fe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Union Santa Fe
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors
2–3–1
Union Santa Fe
(6 last)
- Union Santa Fe1-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-1Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe1-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-0Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe1-0Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors2-1Union Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors 1582 · Union Santa Fe 1487
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 26% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1582 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Boca Juniors: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boca Juniors | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 6.7 | 1.1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors 2–3–1 Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 19/07/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 29/01/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 21/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 06/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 21/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union Santa Fe |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Lanus | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Newell's | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Platense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boca Juniors | Union Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Central Cordoba | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Lanus | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Platense | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 27/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 07/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors win (60%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors 60%, draw 25%, Union Santa Fe 15%.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Boca Juniors 1.88 · Union Santa Fe 0.84), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.